Part two of my finale rankings. Here we go. Denise, Sarah, Tony, Ben, Michele, and the Edge Returnee! Let’s go!
6. Denise Stapley- Denise made a good move, as I said earlier, in playing the whole “I’m going home” thing, because it shifted everyone’s focus onto Nick. Unfortunately for Denise, I still worry that she’s on the outs. Should Natalie or Tyson return, they’re going to have an idol, Ben has an idol, and Tony has an idol. That leaves Denise, Michele, and Sarah on the outs. Tony has Sarah’s back, and Natalie will probably have Michele’s back (remember, Michele was one of the ONLY people who DIDN’T vote Natalie out, and Denise voted her out). Nobody really has Denise’s back. She’s on her own, and while everyone likes her, I could see idols being played, and Denise being one of the only eligible people to go home. Denise slayed the Queen, and I don’t think her story exceeds beyond that. Still a great winner who deserves credit.
5. Ben Driebergen- Ben, Ben, Ben. Ben hasn’t done such a great job socially. He made enemies with Rob, enemies with Adam, enemies with Jeremy. I think Ben gets zero votes if he makes the final three. So why not take him to the final three? Here’s why. Ben can win a fire making challenge easily, as everyone saw him do it on his first season. Tony and Sarah even talked about how threatening he was to go up against in a fire making challenge (foreshadowing, much?). This is why I think they’ll flip on him before the final three, as they can’t risk him getting to a fire making challenge and potentially taking up one of their spots in the finals. They’d rather take their chances going up against potentially Michele or Natalie than they would Ben. Ben has been entertaining this season, but I don’t think he played as clean of a game as he originally intended, and as much as I’m not a fan of his season, I think his first win is much more impressive than his gameplay this time around.
4. Sarah Lacina- I just talked about Sarah not wanting Ben to make it to the fire-making challenge, and ironically, I think she’ll still LOSE in the fire making challenge regardless of if Ben is there or not. In the final four, you’re gonna have two pairs. Michele and the Edge Returnee and then Tony and Sarah. Everyone is going to want to split up the other pair. If Tony or Sarah win immunity, then Michele and the Edge Returnee compete in fire. If Michele or the Edge Returnee win immunity, Sarah and Tony make fire. I think there’s a very good chance the Edge Returnee wins immunity (especially if it’s Natalie or Tyson), so I think it’s going to be a heartfelt battle between Cops R Us for fire making. Tony and Sarah promised to never turn on each other, so the only option is for them to either make it to the final tribal together, or go up against each other in fire making. If they make it to the final three together, I think Tony sweeps it anyway, because his gameplay is much flashier than Sarah’s. With the way the edit has shown, Michele has had an incredible underdog story all season, Natalie will be having a huge redemption arc. I think Sarah’s story just pales in comparison. She has played an amazing game, but since Sophie’s elimination, she has been feeding into Tony’s game, and I really worry that she’s going to come short of the final three because she simply just couldn’t outplay her best friend Tony. Either way, it’ll be an emotional moment to see them either make it to the end together or go up against each other in fire. It seems fitting that the two people running the show end up in this epic fire making duel. Great game Sarah, you really proved how good at the game you were.
3. Michele Fitzgerald- Michele is the underdog going into this episode, which is ironic because Natalie should be the ULTIMATE underdog. But Michele is on the complete outs. The good news for Michele is that should Parvati, Wendell, Natalie, Nick, or Jeremy come back, I see them easily working with Michele. I even see people like Ethan, Danni, or Amber working with Michele. Michele is going to have that handicap, and I think she proved this week that she could also win an immunity. I see Michele hustling her way to the end. The bad news for Michele is that the Edge Returnee is going to garner lots of respect from the people who were exiled with them, and Tony has been a much flashier player than Michele. Michele honestly stands the best chance against both Tony AND Sarah, because there’s potential for Tony and Sarah’s votes to be split. I just think, as much as Michele is an amazing player and great underdog to root for, she won’t look as good in the jury’s eyes and she has looked in ours. I think she’s incredibly underrated and proved why she’s a great player. She gets the job done, and I think she’s proved that she can play this game and form amazing social bonds. She sat in tribal while greats like Ethan, Parvati, Tyson, Kim were all voted out, and she survived them all. Well done Michele, I hope you get more votes than I expect.
2. Extinction Island Returnee- For the rankings sake, let’s call her Natalie. I think Natalie will have a really good shot of sitting in the finals. She could win immunities, play idols, and could even win fire, and I think Natalie could do it all. The question is….does the jury award someone who they lived with for days? Socially, yes, they love her. But can they respect that someone who got voted out TRIBAL ONE would be the winner of an ALL winner season? I love Natalie as much as everyone else, and hope she comes back because she was given an unfair disadvantage being on Jeremy’s tribe from the start. She was only targeted in the first tribal because people wanted to split them up. I think she deserves a chance to really play. But she spent SO much time on Extinction, I think it’s hard for anyone to award her the win over someone like Tony who played his ass off. I do think she’ll get some votes, because people like Ethan and Danni spent SO many days with Natalie and respect her work ethic. She also gave that idol to Tyson, which may create a guaranteed jury vote from him. She has lots of momentum, but in an all-winners season, as much as the jury may love her as a person, I think it’s hard not to award the million to someone who played all 39 days to the max.
1. Tony Vlachos- Tony is the man to beat. Unless he loses in fire making, I can’t see him not making the final tribal. He has an idol, and has Ben and Sarah in his back pocket. There’s also a possibility he gets on Michele and Natalie’s side because they’re all from New Jersey (represent!). I just don’t see how he doesn’t end up in the final three. He’s been the biggest character of the season, and has played so hard. He made big moves, getting out people like Sophie and Kim, but he also knew when to lay low. He knew the exact time to strike, he gained a lifelong ally in Sarah, someone who could’ve easily turned on him. He proved his loyalty to Sarah while still blindsiding others and making crazy spy shacks. He’s won immunities for the first time in his Survivor career. I think he really proved why he’s the best all around player of the season. Even those who think he doesn’t have a social game…we saw the scene with him and Jeremy discussing days of the week. That’s purely social. The ladder? Entertaining. He’s entertainment, and that’s incredible social game, being the cause of laughter and fun in the tribe. He has played strategically better than anyone this season (unless Adam’s podium idol were real), and he has certainly won the competitions needed to prove his physical strength. If he wins fire, that’s even more ammunition for his resume. I think Tony is the player to beat, and if he gets to the end, I don’t see any way he doesn’t win. If he does win, he’s the greatest of all time. Period. Sandra did it twice too, and on her first two tries, but Tony did it on an ALL WINNER season, which is hard to argue against. The Queen finally has a King sitting atop the Mount Rushmore of Survivor.
So there you have it. I think Denise and Ben will be picked off, Denise for having no ally or advantage, and Ben for being taken out before fire making. I think it’s going to be Natalie and Michele vs. Tony and Sarah, and we’ll see Natalie win that final immunity, sending Sarah and Tony to fire. Tony will win that, and subsequently take the jury votes and win. It’ll be unusual to see someone win over the internet, but I’m glad we still get the live reunion and announcing of the vote. It’s an epic season, and of course, any legendary season should have a memorable ending. This surely will be memorable. From an edit standpoint, it’s gotta be Tony. From a gameplay standpoint, it’s gotta be Tony. Natalie could do it, but I think people learned from the last Edge of Extinction season, they don’t want someone who only played 10 or so days winning the whole thing. Especially in a winners season. I”m so on board with this season. As much as the whispering may be annoying, and there were some sad boots from the Old Schoolers early on, I’ve enjoyed the gameplay, particularly from Tony, and can’t wait to see who wins it all!
Part two of my finale rankings. Here we go. Denise, Sarah, Tony, Ben, Michele, and the Edge Returnee! Let’s go!