It is now all over for the former Savaii tribe. Betrayed by Cochran when the numbers were even, they lost the vote and it was all downhill from then on. Only Cochran stood any chance of finishing seventh or higher, but he was ruthlessly despatched. Did he make a severe strategic mistake? Edna was the next to go, but could she done anything to avoid this?
We can now in hindsight examine the strategy employed by the main players, and wonder what might have been.
Cochran
Perhaps lucky to have avoided the wooden spoon by being the first person in the game to be voted out, Cochran somehow survived till the merge as Savaii always found a reason to vote some other person out. When the merge came, Cochran wanted to avoid a tie at all costs, and voted against his former tribe. He would have been the lowest ranking among them anyway - the equivalent of Edna in Upolu - so had nothing much to lose. It was not surprising that they all got voted out until he was "rewarded" by being the only one left. He had outlasted them, but of course wanted to survive longer than at least one former Upolu player. Unfortunately that was as far as he got, but how would anyone have known that? We can hardly blame Cochran for rebelling, and with Albert and Coach looking supportive, he certainly had a chance. The right approach would have been to get Edna to join his side as soon as possible.
Edna
Edna was definitely the outsider in her former tribe. This was always the case even before Brandon publicly declared it at the tribal council at which Cochran was eliminated. She had voted with her tribe all the time, but rather than thinking she was safe with Coach, should have switched sides at some opportune moment to avoid the scenario in which Cochran was due to go and she was next. It was too little too late when she tried to help Cochran to survive, and all she could do was get people to merely consider that it might be acceptable to vote out Brandon rather than her after that. Unfortunately, she failed. But it never should have come to that stage.
Albert
Always plotting a big move but always finding it out of his reach, Albert could never wrest control of the game away from Coach. His main ally seemed to be Sophie, but she was not keen to upset the status quo that would ensure she would be at least fifth, and quite likely better than that. It looks like he had the wrong ally. He twice wanted Sophie to join him in a "big move", but twice failed.
A good time for the big move would have been when Dawn, Whitney, and Cochran were there, all quite willing to cooperate. The plan was for him and Sophie to join in and vote out Edna. Under no pressure, Sophie did not agree. If instead Albert had enlisted Edna's support, she might have been willing to join the rebels and vote out the irritating Brandon 5-4. (Perhaps it would have been asking too much to persuade her to blindside Coach, I suppose.) What an opportunity missed, and unfortunately Whitney was voted out at the same tribal council as Dawn, so there was no opportunity for another plan.
And it was now too little too late when Cochran's time came. Edna of course was willing to help Cochran and Albert vote out Rick, knowing her lowly position, but Sophie was simply not interested. It was a question of getting Coach to help, but somehow it was hardly imaginable that Coach and Albert would be allies in a rebellion.
Coach
Coach was clearly in it to win, and for this to be possible, he figured out that he had to avoid antagonising anyone. He quite rightly allowed Cochran to survive for as long as possible, and then when there was a chance to support Albert, Edna, and Cochran in voting out Rick, he felt it was an unnecessary way to make himself unpopular should he get to the end. So, to keep his alliance happy, he let nature take its course and got Cochran voted out. It was then time to vote Edna out, and she managed to make enough of an impression to get him to consider voting out Brandon. But he decided that alliance rules were to be adhered to, and that was the end of Edna. Coach's reputation stayed intact, and being the one holding the idol, he had less to fear.
Conclusion
Now, the players remaining in the game are only the Upolu five, all of whom have stayed loyal, along with presumably Ozzy or Edna, either of whom would be targetted upon returning. Only Albert has ever had the urge to avoid this scenario, almost certainly questioning why Coach should enjoy perfectly smooth sailing to the end. Brandon has been "ethical" to a fault, even if his loyalty has never been in doubt. Sophie has never yielded to the temptation of making a "big move", but that temptation has never been really serious. Coach has decided against being kind and helping out Cochran and Edna the weaklings, knowing that his allies would not approve. And Rick has been conspicuous by his complete lack of action. Perhaps no one is aware of any alliance of three within the alliance, and thus everyone let the voting converge to its natural conclusion, having no incentive to take control of the game.
So unfortunately, all that potential for exciting voting has now been revealed to amount to empty threats. Albert just could not upset the natural order no matter how hard he tried. He must have envisaged Coach strolling unchallenged to victory, with no one bothering to stop him and everyone looking foolish. The only hope they have is that Coach fails to win the final immunity challenge, and those remaining realise he would win the game and conspire to vote him out. But no one knows for sure if he will be in the position to make that crucial vote.
Comments
Sorry, I accidentally negged you. My fingers are too big for my phone. I love this though. (:
