The game had reached a crucial stage. The tribes were equal, and the merge would happen anytime soon. Ozzy exploited the Redemption Island rule to sacrifice himself just to give his tribe a better chance to defeat Christine in the duel, and sell a silly story about Cochran using the idol to send him there. When tribal council arrived, he made yet another move by playing the idol, but this was to hurt his alliance as Cochran decided to switch sides.
Ozzy's Disappearing / Reappearing Act
The merge was imminent and Ozzy had an idea to make the game more interesting for the viewers. Almost certainly against the expectations of us expert analysts, he considered volunteering to be voted out for strategic reasons. Redemption Island had played its part, since he was not really out of the game, and had a high chance of bouncing back in immediately. Indeed they lost the immunity challenge, with the inept Cochran to blame, of course, but despite having done more than enough to deserve the punishment of being voted out, he was spared once again, due to Ozzy's masterplan. Ozzy gave Cochran the idol for safekeeping, though he did not seem the most appropriate bearer of the idol.
What we knew all along, but they seemed not to know, was that Christine was more likely than Cochran to desert her tribe. Surely they would have picked up some clues about her intentions when attending so many duels, but apparently they must have missed something. This was to Christine's own detriment, as had she got the message across that she would gladly have rebelled against her tribe, they would have sent Cochran there and not cared if he became her next victim. But out of fear of Christine as an unknown quantity, Ozzy felt it was best that he went there since he was more likely than Cochran to defeat her in the duel (which he did). Ozzy's feeble attempt to pretend that he had been blindsided by nasty Cochran's hidden immunity idol might have convinced Christine, but not Upolu, though.
Perhaps Ozzy did not really need to get himself sent to Redemption Island. Had Cochran gone and lost, Christine could conceivably have joined their side. But he would have gained everyone's respect for putting himself at some risk - he could have lost and been eliminated from the game - to increase his tribe's chances. People would generally have looked upon him more favourably, to the extent of erring on the side of letting him get to the end. So he did himself some favours with the bigger picture in mind.
Cochran takes Centre-Stage
Ozzy's comfortable win was enough to bring him back into the game. The tribes merged with equal numbers, which meant a lottery was on the cards: some unfortunate person would be picked at random to go to Redemption Island. No one really wanted that, since a majority of one at this stage would potentially be devastating. Both sides desperately wanted someone to defect. This was the chance for Cochran to perform his tricks. The plan was to get Cochran to infiltrate the enemy, hoping to find a weakness. There was a remote chance that Edna might have been the right person to tempt over, but Cochran probably did not think of checking her out. He concluded that none of the Upolu six would yield. Upolu did not need to reciprocate by sending an infiltrator, since Cochran had obligingly offered himself as a potential deserter.
Cochran hated the prospect of drawing rocks to determine the loser. In virtually any game, a tie is highly unsatisfactory. At this stage in Survivor, a tie would be a nightmare, since pure chance would dictate which side would have an overwhelming advantage that they had done nothing to earn. It was easier to avoid this possibility by flipping his vote than to get someone from the other side to do the dirty deed. Dawn had also considered the prospect of flipping, but made it clear to Cochran that she felt it was not right at the time. So he would have been on his own.
At tribal council, Keith and Rick received six votes each. They had to go through the vote again, and this time Cochran flipped his vote to eliminate Keith. Of course this angered his former tribe. The fact remains that he did it, and it is now time to examine the many likely reasons why, besides him abhorring the picking of rocks.
Firstly, Cochran had survived this long despite being a candidate for elimination at every single tribal council. This was not something he was grateful for, and he felt he did not really belong. (Dawn had a similar sentiment, but to a lesser extent.)
As someone who knew almost everything about Survivor history, Cochran was aware that history has shown that no one appreciates a traitor. Of course the side being betrayed would be antagonised, but the traitor's new team would not usually see him as one of their own. Once the majority is so high that the traitor's vote is no longer needed, he would be voted out and no one would bother to protect him. While bearing all this in mind, a second reason why he flipped his vote could have been that Coach had reassured him that he would be accepted and have a decent chance of attaining respectability. Brandon's reaction suggested that he would take good care of Cochran - and this seems believable.
Could what Ozzy did at tribal council have influenced Cochran as well? He and Dawn were immune, and with Cochran highly unlikely to get the six hostile votes, it was a question of which of Jim, Keith, or Whitney would be targetted: there was a one in three chance of protecting the right person if he played the idol. Ozzy predicted that Whitney would be the most likely target because she would then be immune to the rock pick, and then Keith or Jim could be the loser. Unfortunately they chose to vote for Keith as the strongest opponent. Ozzy's idea was quite ridiculous, because it was a risk not worth taking. It could have worked at the cost of an idol - but six against five with an idol was not really decisive. The plan failed, and it looked like "game over". Surely Ozzy would have the sense not to use the idol prematurely, especially since he could definitely carry it over to the next tribal council. Now Savaii were at the mercy of Upolu.
Conclusion
I look forward to hearing Cochran's explanation...
At this juncture, Cochran appears fairly safe with the enemy. He might have made some friends among them, and one or two of them could foresee him as a strong ally to help them go all the way. If he is not seen as a threat, they might at least tolerate his presence, since they can vote off other more dangerous people first. With Coach and Brandon around, Cochran might have just about enough protection for a while.
In theory, all is lost for the former Savaii as the situation is ideal for the Pagong effect (one tribe voting out all of the other). This is not so simple, actually. All we need to do is recall what happened last time. In the previous season, Rob's former tribe was in a similarly advantageous position. But he still had to take the necessary measures to ensure that both sides were kept apart and did not communicate to possibly plot a rebellion to overthrow him. It made it easier when the people who mattered all thought they were going to the end with him. And indeed they pulled off a Pagong. However, no one has such absolute control this time, and anyone who does not fancy his chances after the easy opponents have all been gone might prefer to keep some of them around a little longer, just to complicate matters a little.
Comments
it is all about Control! lets see if Coach can control his own people
