When participating in Survivor, play Survivor. Such advice was not heeded by Michael, and he was resoundingly blindsided and eliminated much earlier than he imagined. He had formed a false alliance which had no reason to value him, and paid the price. How did this result come about, and does this imply that the guys will all be eliminated, leaving the girls in the final six?
Let us examine Michael's total absence of strategy, which Jay is also guilty of. Michael and Jay were never really playing Survivor. Forming the muscle alliance with Bill and Matt was an acceptable action, but unfortunately there were five others in the tribe who had to band together by default, and voted out Matt with no resistance. Later on, they stupidly allowed the tribe to relinquish immunity and vote out Bill. As a result, they had only themselves as allies. They made themselves candidates to go if there was an imminent tribal council.
Fortunately for them, the tribe members were switched, and they were in the stronger tribe which was unlikely to lose challenges. Having no apparently better option, they thought they could ally with Chelsea and Kim, rather than fit in with the misfits at the merge. When Monica was voted out by the other tribe, all was well, but when Colton was removed from the game and the tribes merged with equal numbers of guys and girls, it was all over for them, though they did not imagine it. There was an air of inevitability when Jonas was voted out. He must have been seen as the best of the misfits, and for that reason had to go. They had no problem about voting him out since they were in their alliance and he was not.
From this point onwards, the girls were in the majority, and Chelsea and Kim were in such a strong position that they could kick out anyone they wanted. They could be allies with Michael and Jay, or Sabrina and Kat, whichever suited them. Not surprisingly, they felt it was time to eliminate Michael. Kim got Troyzan's support by lying to him that Michael wanted to get rid of him, and Chelsea could even afford to mindlessly give away the plan to Jay. We know that Michael was voted out 7-2-2, but can only depend on Wikipedia to note that Alicia and Christina voted for Tarzan, while Michael and Tarzan voted for Christina. It looks like Jay might even have gone along with the decision to vote out Michael.
Up till now, the false alliance has worked phenomenally well. Michael forgot he was in a game of Survivor, and felt safe. But his alliance was an illusion, and the real one is the girls' alliance - which we knew all along. Since the illusion is no more, and there are six girls and only four guys, it should be a straightforward and humiliating elimination of all of them. All the guys will be gone and the six girls will win together.
Actually, it is not as simple as that. They cannot win together; only the top three can consider themselves winners. Kim, Chelsea, and Sabrina are the bookies' favourites for the top three, with Kat fourth, Alicia fifth, and Christina sixth. Jay, Troyzan, Tarzan, and Leif expect to be voted out routinely, and need to find weaknesses in the girls' alliance. On the evidence of the past two seasons, old tribal bonds are unbreakable, and there is nothing the losers can do to save themselves. But this season is a little different. There is no cult figure to take complete control. Kim is trying to fufil this role, but she cannot. We need to recall what happened before, and why this season is different.
In Redemption Island, Rob had complete control of his tribe. They did not even talk to the other tribe, and were immune to any attempt to compromise their loyalty. Almost all of them thought they were aligned with Rob to the end, and felt that they always had a chance to go all the way. In South Pacific, Coach formed a strong alliance of five, and they went all the way, despite Albert's feeble attempts to bring about a "big move" to upset the establishment. This time, the five girls Chelsea, Kim, Sabrina, Kat, and Alicia can easily get themselves to the final five, and not really bother too much if Christina is sixth or worse. The trouble is that the pecking order is a little too obvious. If Alicia and Christina have the sense to resolve their differences, and Kat figures out that fourth is fine, but not quite there, they can get the guys to help them change things around. The guys hardly seem to be threats anyway.
The guys will need to negotiate sensibly. Surely they would have noticed Tarzan's two votes in tribal council, and figured out that two girls - namely Christina and Alicia - were not part of the plan. They must have a girl voted out, but if they attempt to make Christina their target, they will have missed the point. Even if they succeeded, they would not help their cause, since Christina would be seen as dispensable anyway. Only Colton and Jonas seem to have been the guys who came to play Survivor, and the others seem totally clueless. Tarzan has so far been the most strategic by behaving obnoxiously and presenting no threat, thus maximising his time in the game. That is a measure of how pathetic they have been, and we can imagine their plans to save themselves failing miserably.
So, at this point in time, it appears that people will perceive that Chelsea, Kim, and Sabrina will be in the top three, but until the last one or two guys are due for elimination, will not be sufficiently unified to turn the tables. It will be too little, too late.
Comments
LMAO @ YOU MAKING THESE LONG BLOGS AS IF SOMEONE READS THEM. IT CRACKS ME UP LMFAOOOOOOOOO @ YOUR AVATAR TOO I'M DYING
I think we are going to have yet another season of a player dominating the game and winning. Kim is one of my faves, and bringing sheep chelsea and small threat Sabrina would be her smartest option. Although, I think she could conclude that her oppritune F3 is Christina and Alicia, since both are very unlikeable. Kim would lose Sabrina's vote, but probably win 8-1.
Timster ... it's wiser to keep quiet and let people THINK you're not too bright than to open your mouth.. and PROVE it!!! Is it really so hard to be nice...????
philomena Awesom blog as usual!! TBH.. I'll be shocked if some of the lesser players on the women's alliance aren't swayed by the men,,, thinking they might just fare better than a final SIX with the women. Tt will be interesting.. I don't recall another all girls alliance ever sticking together long enough to make it to the end .... sadly !!! lol
There was actually such a case of the women sticking together - Vanuatu. They voted out all the men except Chris, and he was up against six women. Fortunately for him, he was spared at this point, and from then on he won all the immunity challenges, and became the Sole Survivor.
Should a similar situation develop this season, the sole man could possibly survive to become the swing vote in a 4 versus 3 situation. He would definitely not be strong enough to win challenges (especially if he was Tarzan) and they would kick him out at some point.
