Survivor is a game of blindsides, and one can have sympathy with the victim when there is no apparent reason for the other players to vote him out. Some of them could have been really unlucky, others betrayed by allies, and others might have been viewed as too big a threat. The blindside of Jay this season is remarkable because the strong signs were there that something was afoot, and there was also a hidden immunity idol that he could have benefited from. He seemed to have blindsided himself!
It would take a psychologist to figure out the thinking that was going on in Jay's head, but as viewers of the show, we can construct some sort of picture of how he feebly tried to play the game, and draw our own conclusions.
We can take Jay and Michael as a single item for the first seven episodes. They were always in the same alliance. The first alliance - the Muscles - had only four people, and they even helped to vote out Matt, and did not prevent the Manano tribe from voluntarily going to tribal council and voting out Bill. So now it was just them in the alliance, waiting to be voted out, but fortunately for them they went to the stronger tribe after the tribal swap. At this point, they felt they could form an alliance within the new Salani tribe, and improve their status.
They felt so safe at the merge that they virtually cut off all ties with the misfits. They had no problem with voting out Jonas, and the fact that Troyzan could fall for Kim's fictitious story about Michael wanting him to be voted out suggested that they hardly talked to him. It was easy for Kim to sustain the illusion of a Salani alliance by voting out Jonas first, and the question was when the time would be right to vote out the two deluded false allies.
Kim felt it was safe enough to vote out Michael next, and it was ridiculously easy to obtain the support of Troyzan, the only guy remaining who was even attempting to play the game. Even Jay could be counted upon to vote out Michael. Surely he must have realised something was wrong - Michael was his biggest ally in the game, and he could not afford to have him voted out.
What should have been obvious to Michael and Jay was that, despite appearances, they were definitely not equal partners in the alliance. This was not an alliance formed early in the game when players had to band together for mutual protection. Kim, Chelsea, Sabrina, and Kate had already done their homework, and they did not even need to call on Alicia and Christina to vote out whoever they pleased. However, Michael and Jay had absolutely no one on their side even in adversity, not even Troyzan.
So Michael was blindsided, and it was time for Jay to emerge from his stupor and figure out that his alliance was illusory. All Kim had to do to keep him under the spell of delusion was pretend to agree to vote out Alicia. Jay should have distrusted her by now, but somehow managed to blind himself into thinking that they were all still aligned, not suspecting that the girls had formed an alliance of five long ago that would not be breaking just yet. He felt he had "no choice" but to take what he was told at face value; after all his alliance, real or fake, was his only means of survival.
The inexplicable elimination of Michael was enough indication to Jay that he was in dire trouble. Instead, he felt very safe, even being tempted out of the immunity challenge by the food on offer. Fortunately for him, Troyzan came to the rescue by showing him the idol that he had found (which seems to have been forgotten about). Troyzan attempted with no success to persuade him he was in trouble, but the idol could change the game. Who would not take advantage of such an opportunity to punish his allies for voting out Michael?
Amazingly, Jay not only dismissed Troyzan's concerns, but also informed Kim that Troyzan had shown him the idol and would play it. He had completely denied the reality that his alliance had no reality when their action of voting out Michael provided sufficient evidence of this. He was even willing to protect Kim, and did not want to go along with Troyzan's idea to vote her out. Somehow he had tricked himself into thinking that she was the only means to keep him in the game. By stupidly telling her about Troyzan's idol, he merely confirmed his elimination. The girls, fearing an idol might come into play at some time, were going to split their votes just in case, and now knowing Troyzan would play it, could assign more votes to Jay. There was never any doubt about the outcome. Jay had blindsided himself, and deserved to be voted out.
Where do we go from here, now that Jay has been ignominiously ousted? The next subject to analyse is the poor play of Troyzan in the game after his imminent elimination. For now, we shall keep it brief, but the details need to be prepared soon. It is very easy to forget he had found the idol before the first Tikiano tribal council. There was the chance to play it then, saving Jonas and surprising the girls, but he did not bother. Later on, he believed Kim's silly story about Michael wanting him to be voted out, and helped in the process. Now he informed Jay about the idol, hoping to talk some sense into him, and failed to get him to vote for Kim. But Jay had voted for Alicia, and so had Leif. Troyzan's was the only vote for Kim (what was the use of this?), and the least he could have done was ensure Alicia got the four guys' votes, and hope Jay got fewer than that. He wasted the idol, but to be fair he had a high chance of receiving the most votes, and would have preferred not to risk becoming another case of someone voted out with an idol.
As the biggest threat, Troyzan would do well just to avoid the next elimination, while Tarzan has a high chance of achieving the honourable distinction of being the last man standing. And whether Christina gets voted out before him is another question. She has been doing absolutely nothing. Must she wait till all the men get voted out before she scrambles to finish better than sixth? She might not even get that far, as the other girls might prefer voting her out before Tarzan, as she is more likely to win immunity than him.
The season appears to be rather predictable as only Kim seems to be really playing Survivor. She is completely running the show, and unless Troyzan rallies enough support to turn the tables, us Survivor analysts must concentrate on studying his rather deficient strategy.
Hey Girl. Brilliant analogy as usual!! My Take on Jay for what it's worth..is that Jay is a very attractive man physically (he makes his living from his appearance) and has taken little time to cultivate his intelligence... thereby by making him self easy prey to any intelligent person!! lol!! It doesn't surprise me at all that he deluded him self into thinking that "his girls" were with him... hadn't that always been case his whole life..
The knuckle headed play by the men has truly dumbfounded me!!! It seems the only ones who are playing the game are Troyzan and Tarzan!! Tarzan is clearly emulating former Survivor player Phillip's game in the hope of being taken to the end because of his unpopularity !! Unless Troyzan can win immunity back to back I fear he will fall by the wayside as the women continue their dissemination of the men.
There are four very strong women players on the remaining six.. It will be interesting indeed to see them jostle for the top three spots!! Thanks again for the awesome read Philomena !!!!!
