Already four episodes of One World have passed, and we have seen how the theme (two tribes on the same beach) has impacted the dynamics of the tribes. With proximity comes interaction, and possibly cooperation, collaboration, or conspiracy. Separating the tribes into male or female only would be of interest as while weaklings would be rooted out, strong females would survive, but strong males might not (there would be more than enough of them).
In One World, Sabrina found an idol that had to be transferred to someone from the other tribe - and being near enough to have a good idea of what was going on in Manono, gave it to Colton, who would have been a likely candidate for elimination. Contact between the tribes must have taken place quite frequently, and some people arose suspicion by bringing about too much of it. Perhaps the merged tribe might not be so divided along former tribal lines.
After four episodes, the most notable situation is that of the bizarre goings-on in the Manono tribe, which has taken the historic step of declining the tribal immunity that they won. It is of interest to examine the tribal dynamics that led to this unprecedented event to understand to an admittedly very limited extent how it could have happened. Let us trace the history of Manono as we understand it.
Colton has been the central figure, transformed from weakest to strongest. At the start, he was "favourably inclined" towards Salani, and Sabrina figured out that he would be good to give the transferable idol to, in the hope of blindsiding a strong guy. Who would have figured out that he did not really need the idol? Allowing for the fact that he declared it publicly could only partially explain his unexpected rise in status.
There were apparently two alliances in Manono, but they were far less formidable than they looked. Matt, Bill, Jay, and Michael were the "muscles", and by default Jonas, Leif, Tarzan, Troyzan, and, apparently last to join Colton, were the "misfits". They had plenty of time to get to know each other, since the first two eliminated from the game were women. While times were good, they were probably all content, but when they lost their first immunity challenge, someone had to go.
Comparing the numbers, it was clear a muscle had to be voted out. It seems Colton's relationship with Bill, which cannot have been good to start with, deteriorated severely beyond repair. Losing the challenge was of course disastrous, but what made it unbearable was that the men had a phenomenal lead until Bill worked on the final puzzle. It seemed impossible for them to lose, but Bill managed to take forever, thus pulling off a remarkable defeat.
In this game, unlike other games, strength is not so indispensable an asset. Strong people do not generally get voted out too soon, because they are seen as useful if a physical challenge were to arise. In a men and women contest, it would not be fair to the women if brute strength mattered, so such contests are uncommon. There were more than enough capable men around the camp, and strong men to win physical challenges, so they could manage without one of them. The misfits thus had no fear of losing a muscle, and the question was whether it should have been Matt or Bill.
It was apparently not only Bill's ineptitude in that crucial challenge that Colton found galling. It was more his care-free attitude. Apparently he was all smiles (to be fair, on TV this could have been shown out of context) despite being the one responsible for the humiliating loss. Colton was keen to vote Bill out, but apparently other people preferred Matt. The muscles apparently did not even try to save one of their own, and joined with the misfits to blindside Matt.
At this stage, Colton's status was transformed from that of a nobody to a powerful player. He had failed to get rid of his target the first time when people voted for Matt instead. Leif committed the crime of speaking to Bill about Colton's wish to vote him out, and was severely reprimanded by Colton, who must have acquired enough authority to influence the rest of his alliance to view Leif with suspicion. And Colton absolutely refused to speak to Bill, probably thinking of nothing other than voting him out. Later, after the immunity victory, Colton still felt Bill must go. His excuse was that it would not help to get to the merge with bigger numbers with wishy-washy Bill among them. Somehow everyone else in the tribe, if they did not initially support him, felt pressured into agreeing to give up immunity and go to tribal council. It made no sense, as after all they could always vote Bill out the next time they lost a challenge. However, anyone who opposed the idea was terrified of being targetted the next time they had to go to tribal council. This fear was completely irrational, because at least Leif and Bill would have voted against going, and Colton would have been too busy campaigning against Bill to care about who had opposed his proposal. The decision apparently had to be unanimous, but was it really? Couldn't someone have vetoed it?
Apparently a deal to give up tribal immunity could only happen in One World, with the tribes within walking distance of each other. We could imagine there being a messenger, of course, if they were not. Tribal council was an animated affair, with Colton and Bill arguing heatedly, but Leif appeared at risk of being punished for betraying his alliance, and seemed resigned to his fate. If Bill thought the extraordinary tribal council was convened to vote Leif out, he was emphatically mistaken - the vote was unanimous to oust him.
Was this first case in Survivor history of giving up tribal immunity a dumb move? This was indeed a first, but only technically; tribes have in the past deliberately lost the challenge, which in practice leads to the same outcome. If it was indeed a dumb move, the biggest fool was Bill. In previous cases, the unfortunate victim could do nothing but watch helplessly as his tribe contrived to lose. But if Bill was in the position in which he could have said no to going, he really should have asserted this right. He was apparently blindsided, deluded into thinking that instead Leif would be punished for betraying his alliance (when all he did was warn Bill about the inevitable). The tribe might have as a whole approved of this plan if they preferred to sacrifice someone for the sake of some harmony rather than in-fighting, but surely the muscles who were not involved in the hostilities would consider it strategic to keep Bill around for as long as possible as a buffer. Perhaps the distinction between muscles and misfits might be getting blurred, since Leif seems to have unwittingly lost the faith of his fellow misfits, and the muscles have vote almost the same way as the misfits.
Colton had suddenly become the most powerful person in the tribe. He could not wait another three days to get rid of Bill, and even immunity was no barrier to get what he wanted, even when it looked impossible. And he had the idol, a gift from Sabrina, which one would have expected him to use to protect himself from the rest of his tribe, rather than almost certainly bring it with him to the merge. Was this a strategic rather than spiteful move by him? Certainly it got rid of an irritating and "comical" person, but Bill was no more than that, certainly not a scheming enemy, and could have been disposed of anytime. Unless Colton is a fortune teller and could foresee tribe members being swapped (in the next episode?), with he and Bill being assigned to the same tribe, it would have been better to ensure Manono had a numerical advantage for the time being.
