Survivor Philippines started off with three tribes of six members each. Such a format reduces the risk of one side forming a strong alliance of five, which gets to the merge and boringly votes out everyone else. This season has seen the abject Matsing tribe disbanded while the others remained intact, and with the two remaining members absorbed into the other tribes, it has developed into a quite intriguing conflict after the merge.
It is appropriate to examine how the allegiances of the players have evolved over time. During the first phase, when only Matsing players were eliminated, while there were no damaging consequences for the other tribes, there was enough time for them to find their idols and switch their loyalties. The second phase was the time before the merge when one of two tribes of seven members each lost three members and entered the merge as the minority. The game then entered the third phase, and the eliminations finally became dramatic. A lot must have happened within the first six episodes, even if they may have seemed uninteresting on the surface. They must be analysed to appreciate what happened after the merge.
The First Phase - Elimination of Matsing
Kalabaw
The key figures in the early game for Kalabaw were Penner and Jeff. Initially Jeff wanted Penner gone, and would have considered voting him out if necessary had Penner not found the idol. Penner knew he needed the idol to survive, and with it he could even get Jeff and Carter on his side. They were false friends, of course, but for the interim period they were fine. They would probably have voted out one of the girls had they gone for a tribal council in the third or fourth episode.
Tandang
In Tandang, an initial alliance of Skupin, Pete, Abi-Maria and RC was formed, leaving Lisa and Artis isolated. A lot changed when Abi-Maria and RC had their disagreement, but Abi-Maria and Pete stayed together. Later on, Skupin must have annoyed people by eating too much rice, and he and RC became the least popular. Lisa and Artis seem to have moved up within the pecking order.
The Second Phase - Kalabaw down to 4
Kalabaw
The arrival of Denise might have complicated issues within Kalabaw, but fortunately for them, Dana left the game and Denise was accepted by the guy's alliance. Dawson and Katie were subsequently eliminated, but significantly the eviction of Katie was not as straightforward as it looked, as Jeff and Carter were considering the alternative option of blindsiding Penner.
Tandang
Tandang were privileged to never have gone for a tribal council. When Malcolm joined, he was welcomed by the majority, while RC and Skupin remained the outsiders. There could have been an alliance of five, but it would have been unlikely to stay intact, given Malcolm's Matsing connection with Denise.
The Third Phase - After the Merge
Dangrayne
It was seven ex-Tandang, possibly including an invincible alliance of five, versus four ex-Kalabaw. A routine sequence of eliminations was imaginable. But Malcolm and Denise had to be seen as potential collaborators, while RC and Skupin were willing to turn against their former tribe-mates, so the ex-Tandang could have been at risk. Ironically, Jeff continued his campaign against Penner, rather than welcomed the support of the deserters. No matter what, his first priority seemed to be to get rid of Penner, for fear that he was too good a player to be allowed to survive. To further complicate matters, Penner, Malcolm, and Abi-Maria held the idols. But what happened next is beyond the scope of this discussion.
It can thus be observed that the dreaded alliance of five has not been formed, and allegiances are likely to shift. The dynamics have changed quite a lot since the game began, and there will be much scope for further developments. People who could have been voted out early, such as Lisa or Penner, have survived until now. Even though the game seems to have waited a long time to begin, perhaps the context of the unexciting first six episodes should provide clues as to what might happen. The alliances that were formed then and subsequently broken were by no means merely academic.
Episodes 7 and 8 provided the first dramatic events. The analysis of Penner's perceptive use of the idol to save himself, along with Jeff's questionable approach to the game that dictated his ultimately failed strategy will be entertaining to study.
