Going through most of the Challenge seasons and punching the confessional counts into a normal distribution calculator. The ones in the highest tier I'd consider to be the "main characters" of the season.
All Stars 2: Nehemiah Clark
Spies, Lies, & Allies: Tori Deal & Devin Walker-Molaghan
All Stars: Jemmye Carroll, Mark Long, Darrell Taylor, & Aneesa Ferreira
People Who Were Main Characters Multiple Times: Tori Deal (2), Devin Walker-Molaghan (2), Kam Williams (2), Paula Meronek (2), Brad Fiorenza (2), Susie Meister (2), CT Tamburello (3), Laurel Stucky (3), Mike Mizanin (3), Wes Bergmann (4), Cara Maria Sorbello (4), Evan Starkman (4), Johnny Bananas (8)
I ranked each cast on placement and on the average amount of confessionals each contestant received per episode, that way I got one list to represent presence and another to represent longevity. I then took each castaway's average rating across both lists, punched all the ratings into a normal distribution chart, and based on who is in the top tier, that gave me the "main characters" of each season. I included their average ranking across both lists.
Borneo: Richard Hatch (1/16) & Kelly Wiglesworth (2/16)
The Australian Outback: Colby Donaldson (1.5/16), Tina Wesson (3/16), & Keith Famie (3.25/16)
Africa: Ethan Zohn (1.75/16), Lex van den Berghe (2/16), & Tom Buchanan (4/16)
Marquesas: Kathy Vavrick-O'Brien (2.5/16) & Sean Rector (5/16)
Thailand: Clay Jordan (3/16), Helen Glover (3/16), & Brian Heidik (4/16)
The Amazon: Jenna Morasca (2/16), Rob Cesternino (2/16), & Matthew von Ertfelda (4.5/16)
Based on edit, however I'm no master edit reader, especially after last season.
12th - Omar - I am not totally sure who will win this season, and Omar is one of my top contenders, but I could also see him with the edit of a merge boot. I think that Omar kind of represents Taku's glue so once he's out I can see the whole tribe unraveling.
11th - Lindsay - If Taku is taken out immediately by blue/green, I think Lindsay is next up (because I see Jonathan winning a lot).
10th - Drea - With all of her advantages, I could see her quickly become an obvious threat that needs to be taken out.
9th - Maryanne - I think the Taku pagonging continues.
8th - Chanelle - I see Chanelle as someone who can never really fall into a good alliance due to her untrustworthiness, so I can see her going here.
7th - Jonathan - I think he's getting knocked out once he doesn't have any protection.
6th - Tori - I think Tori is also not a very trustworthy person who will get taken out around here while people stick with people they really trust.
5th - Hai - I think Hai is being painted as a good player but it just doesn't feel like a winner's edit to me, but I think he'll be around for a while. Kind of a more visible Ricard.
4th - Rocksroy - I think he either goes very soon or gets to this point, but he just hasn't had the edit of a finalist.
3rd - Lydia - I could see Lydia kind of going soon, or I see her becoming more of a character. I'd be a little surprised if she was our winner, unless maybe she has a big episode soon.
2nd - Romeo - A lot of Romeo's edit signals to me that he is going far, but it does not feel exactly like a winner's edit.
1st - Mike - Mike is my winner pick personally, I think his edit is the most solid.
I ranked each cast on placement and on the average amount of confessionals each contestant received per episode, that way I got one list to represent presence and another to represent longevity. I then took each HGs average rating across both lists, punched all the ratings into a normal distribution chart, and based on who is in the top tier, that gave me the "main characters" of each season. I included their average ranking across both lists.
BB2: Will Kirby (1/12) & Nicole Nilson-Schaffrich (2/12)
BB3: Danielle Reyes (1.5/12) & Lisa Donahue (3/12)
BB4: Alison Irwin (1.5/12), Jun Song (2/12), & Robert Roman (3.5/12)
BB5: Diane Henry (3/14), Drew Daniel (3.5/14), & Marvin Latimer (4/14)
Obviously there's zero shot of a season like this ever happening (literally legally it cannot happen) but I thought it'd be interesting to try and guess what would happen if they got all 23 winners from the official BBUS seasons to play again.
23rd - Evel Dick
Dick has just made way too many enemies to remain in the house, and in a cast of 23, I think an easy boot probably goes first.
22nd - Josh
I could go either way with Josh, I could see him going out early or making a deep run. I put him here at 22 because I think a cast of winners could see him as a person who could easily be dragged along as an easy beat, and he's also a person who has unbreakable relationships in the house (like Kaycee).
21st - Kaycee
If Josh goes early, I could see Kaycee following.
20th - Dan
Just way too big of a target to remain in the game for a long time.
19th - Nicole F
I think people definitely see her as a big threat and it does not help that she has bad blood with Cody (and probably Derrick by proxy) as well as Rachel, who would probably also be close with Jordan.
18th - Drew
Just doesn't seem like he'd be that well connected with the other winners, another easy boot.
17th - Adam
Another easy boot because I'm not sure how many friends he has in the house and I don't really see him getting into the big alliance on a season like this.
16th - Cody
I think Cody/Derrick are too intimidating a duo, so a shot would be taken at them around this point I think.
15th - Xavier
I don't know, I just don't think X would have the chops for a season like this and I also think he'd have a target on his back being the most recent winner.
14th - Jackson
Probably gets taken out early as well as to prevent a comp run late in the game.
I'd imagine the jury would be 11 people on a big cast like this.
13th - Steve
This seems about right, he is someone I could also see making a deep run into the game, but I just don't know if he could measure up on a season like this. I'd imagine there'd be some big group calling the shots and I don't think Steve would be apart of it.
12th - Maggie
Not a person I see digging their claws into the house socially, but a savvy enough player to make it this far.
11th - Hayden
I think Hayden probably presents himself as a big threat around this point, and that's when everyone else decides that it's time to get rid of him, although I definitely see him as a power player in this season.
10th - Ian
The worry that Ian would ace all the mental comps in the endgame would eventually catch up with him, and he'd get sent out of the game a few rounds before then.
9th - Mike Boogie
This may be way too high. I'm kind of unsure of where to put Mike Boogie because he definitely has a 0 percent chance of winning, he would be a house pariah like we've never seen before. He either goes out at 23rd, or no one would want to waste an HoH on him because again, he would never win in any hypothetical situation ever.
8th - Dr. Will
Too big of a threat to even let near the endgame, because if he somehow starts winning comps and makes it to the end, there is not one person who could beat him.
7th - Derrick
As with Will, he's too legendary of a player to let near the end, pretty much regardless of his game he would probably beat anybody.
6th - Rachel
I see her as a significant player on a season like this, but again, she's a very legendary character which makes her a threat to win on a season like this, and people would also want to split her and Jordan up.
5th - Andy
I could see Andy win out with this group, but I could also see him go out around here as too big of a competition threat.
4th - Eddie
I think Eddie would play kind of a boring game, and I think he'd go a long way because he's not a threat to win any of the competitions. However, if he reached the end there's a very good chance he would win, so he'd probably go out around here.
3rd - Jun
I think Jun is probably our fallen angel if the season shakes out this way, I just think she might be a little too high profile to make the final 2.
F2 - Jordan & Lisa
2nd - Jordan
I don't think Jordan's gameplay could muster up the respect of some of the game's greatest players.
1st - Lisa
I think Lisa is just savvy enough and her threat level is super low going into a season like this, so I could definitely see her being very well liked while also shocking some people with her shrewd gameplay.
