Here we go again! Another Season, Another set of Survivors. After an awful result in my last season's prediction (I had Sophie pegged pre merge) I'm back with my thoughts on the new castaways and how I see them ending up in the game. THIS IS NOT A SPOILER BLOG!!!!
THIS WILL BE IN REVERSE ORDER
Monica- She maybe fit and active, but I can see her and Nina
butting heads for leadership within the women's tribe. Her
urgency to be the tribe's "mother" won't sit very well
with a lot of people (ask Patricia from Marquesas). I can see
her pissing people off because she thinks they're slacking off.
I just don't see her making the merge at all.
Prediction: 18th
Greg- Probably the resident cuckoo of his tribe. He has a lot of
Coach(?) and Jimmy T. persona in him but I'm afraid he might go
Philip on the tribe--and being the oldest, he may have a tough
time with his social game. BTW, This is the 3rd season
we've had a dude w/ a bizarre facial hair (Ralph, Rick comes to
mind) and to tell you the truth, its not looking pretty.
Prediction: 17th
Alicia- She is probably this season's chatty chick who wouldn't shut up.
(Rita, Stephanie V, Eliza, Christine, Carolina comes to mind)
Her interview gave me an impression of someone who's all talk
but never backs it up. Also, admitting that she's not in shape
as the others is a red flag, since she can be perceived as the
weakest tribe member.
Prediction: 16th/15th
Sabrina: Her interview comes off as "I wanna be the most entertaining
Black woman ever on Survivor" and I have a feeling it won't be
the case. Also, her aversion to bugs and germs will really
irritate everyone. I can see her and Alicia forming a bond, but
since they're not one of the stronger women, I can see her
go after Alicia does.
Prediction: 16th/15th
Kat- She comes off very naive--like a mixture of Jaime Dugan,
Ashley Trainer, Kelly Czarneki, and Natalie Tenerelli.
Once her usefulness is gone, she's disposable. I can see
her and Jay as a potential showmance and could be voted off
because of it.
Prediction: 14th
Leif- His interview didn't give me much about him and he was very
disconnected when he spoke. I don't know how he can relate with
others, but if he makes the merge, he's in a solid spot to
make it really far. But he has a tough uphill battle to
get there, especially if everyone thinks he's a threat to win
over sympathy votes.
Prediction: 13th
Bill- I like his story, but he came off too twitchy in his interview and
it made me uncomfortable. This could lead to him being
deemed unworthy if he's not careful. I wanted him to stay longer
since I find him as a comic relief and I would like someone with
an Afro make it far this time. If he does make it far, he could be
a dark horse coming into the finals. I could see him hitting it
off with Kim.
Prediction: 12th
Michael- He's the token 'boring' young guy this season (Keith last
season, Grant, Mike, Chase, etc.) I don't see him
having problems making it to the merge, but he will
be one of the first ones targeted afterwards if he's on an
outnumbered alliance. And him wanting to make a big move
is just gonna ruffle feathers like Albert did last season.
Prediction: 11th
Kourtney- I like how relatable she is, but she is the most
likely to have an emotional breakdown. She shares
Rupert's idea of how to play the game which doesn't
work on paper. I could see her getting picked on by her
tribe and probably will get voted out so they don't have
to deal with her.
Prediction: 10th
Chelsea- I like that she's not your typical blonde barbie. I
also like that she's not afraid to get down and dirty.
Unfortunately, I'm not convinced that her social skills
are as good as she claims to be. She could be a premerge
boot, cause even though she's fit, its not always the case
with women (ask Mikayla last season)
Prediction: 9th
Colton- Is a wild card for me. He's a snarkier version of Todd, but
I'm not sure if he'll be as successful. I can see him
defect w/ the women or be a strategic player with the men.
He can be easily taken out if he is perceived as a
strategic threat. I personally want him out early, but I have
a feeling he'll be around for a while since sounded pretty
convincing in his interview.
Prediction: 8th
Jonas- I see him as a secondary player, but not as a main person
who does the strategic moves. I see him as a passive character
who I can see being taken out because he is outside of an
alliance. He has a likeness factor that can allow him to slide
by if needed.
Prediction: 7th
Nina- She pretty much would likely assume leadership in the
women tribe early on with her background. I see her
as one of the power players and would likely to align
with a male-dominated alliance. I think she will be the
strong female this season and that is enough to find
her too threatening to be voted off.
Prediction: 6th
Jay- Yes, he has an odd voice, but its not a speech contest. He's a
potential physical threat, but I do believe that he can be
charming as well. I can see him hooking up with Kat or even Chelsea
and be the guy's best friend at the same time. Unfortunately, I
can see that as reason to vote him off once he looses immunity--
which I predict he'll win a lot this season.
Prediction: 5th
Christina- She has a lot of achievements, she's smart and
she knows how to sell herself which is a good thing
to have. I see her to be the "Older" sister that people
would turn to when it comes to decisions. She could
pose as too like able or too smart to keep around.
Prediction: 4th
Troy- I have a feeling Jeff Probst will give him the Boston Rob/Colby/
Rupert/Ozzy etc Hero worship this season. I see a mix of Ozzy
and Terry Dietz and I see him being popular w/ his tribemates
and will most likely be taken rather far in the game. I think
he will be more of a character than a strategist.
Prediction: 3rd
Matt- He's obviously the Alpha male type who would usurp the leader
role, not just in the tribe but the alliance as well. With passive
guys like Jay, Michael, Jonas and maybe Bill, he is the most
likely guy to make a solid alliance and take it all the way to the
end. It's a boring strategy but it does work. Unfortunately, he
didn't really come off as like able in his interview, so he may
loose to the jury over someone they like better.
Kim- I like her easy going vibe. It also helps that she's
perceptive and I do hope she stays around since
I enjoy her quirky persona and she's not bad to look
at. She may not be seen as a strategist, but she seem
likeable enough to garner the jury vote.
Prediction: Winner
Comments
My thoughts.
Agreed 100% on Monica. She'll be to this season what Christine and Kristina were the last time or what Patricia was to Marquesas. Aggressive, older women do not win.
Agreed, Greg has no shot of succeeding at all but he'll be a crazy guy bringing the lulz while he's around.
I think that your fears about Alicia are more likely to come true with Christina. I think Alicia has a good shot of slipping by and being friends with people and I don't think she'll be the big talker.
Sabrina isn't winning, herp da derp, she's cast as the pre-merge black female ghetto boot fodder.
There is nothing interesting about Kat.
I don't think that Leif is set as soon as he makes the merge, honestly. I think he is a little bit too distant/awkward to get into a good group especially becasue everyone will think sympathy votes. Leif will have a tough time making the merge and a bit of an easier ride after that but I still do not see him making finals. He wins if he makes finals tho but that's why it won't happen
Bill is my pick to win. I don't know what it is about him and I think I am literally the only person who thinks that, but I just think Bill's got a great shot of working his way into a majority and being a nice, cool dude who just slips by, makes moves when he has to and wins. He is my dark horse pick to win.
Yeah, Michael could go either way honestly. He could be the nice dude who gets booted on the jury without much going on, or he could be the token schemer who tries too hard (Albert, Jim, David etc). No idea which way he'll go though.
With Kourtney it depends on whether she's as awkward as I fear she might be. I think that she could manage to get in good with people and go far based off of that, but her totally strong moral compass makes it damn near impossible for her to win. I adore her though.
I doubt Chelsea will win. All of the girls say they aren't the "typical Barbie" but then they are; see Ashley, Andrea, and Natalie from S22... I like Chelsea and I think she's more interesting than she might appear, but she also could go the Kelly Czarnecki route of an irrelevant borewhore.
Colton is Brandon Quinton. He will be on the jury and consider himself to be a better player than he is.
I disagree with you on Jonas; he's one of my top three picks to win. I think that if there are enough aggressive people this season, then Jonas can and will very easily get into a good spot to let them self-destruct around him, observe what's happening and sneak by because he is likable and isn't the biggest target. Serious Earl Cole vibes from this guy.
Nina is the lesser Holly is the lesser Julie is the lesser Dawn... Next.
Jay will be Brett. Nice guy who does well but is bland and does not make finals. Ho hum.
I don't get what the hell kind of vibe you got off Christina; re-watch that shit. She's talking about how she's FUN and FUNNY and GOOFY and SILLY and is easy pre-merge boot fodder.
I think you're overestimating Troy's sanity haha. There's about a 1 in 5 shot at him being the lesser Ozzy/Terry/etc and about a 4 in 5 shot at him being the lesser Coach
No WAY to Matt, you kidding me? He'll try too hard to play an aggressive, "strategic" game and be voted out for it because he's a fucking arrogant cock. He's a dick and he isn't winning or even making it far. He's like an unlikable Marty/David/etc. He isn't making it that far.
Agreed 100% on Monica. She'll be to this season what Christine and Kristina were the last time or what Patricia was to Marquesas. Aggressive, older women do not win.
Agreed, Greg has no shot of succeeding at all but he'll be a crazy guy bringing the lulz while he's around.
I think that your fears about Alicia are more likely to come true with Christina. I think Alicia has a good shot of slipping by and being friends with people and I don't think she'll be the big talker.
Sabrina isn't winning, herp da derp, she's cast as the pre-merge black female ghetto boot fodder.
There is nothing interesting about Kat.
I don't think that Leif is set as soon as he makes the merge, honestly. I think he is a little bit too distant/awkward to get into a good group especially becasue everyone will think sympathy votes. Leif will have a tough time making the merge and a bit of an easier ride after that but I still do not see him making finals. He wins if he makes finals tho but that's why it won't happen
Bill is my pick to win. I don't know what it is about him and I think I am literally the only person who thinks that, but I just think Bill's got a great shot of working his way into a majority and being a nice, cool dude who just slips by, makes moves when he has to and wins. He is my dark horse pick to win.
Yeah, Michael could go either way honestly. He could be the nice dude who gets booted on the jury without much going on, or he could be the token schemer who tries too hard (Albert, Jim, David etc). No idea which way he'll go though.
With Kourtney it depends on whether she's as awkward as I fear she might be. I think that she could manage to get in good with people and go far based off of that, but her totally strong moral compass makes it damn near impossible for her to win. I adore her though.
I doubt Chelsea will win. All of the girls say they aren't the "typical Barbie" but then they are; see Ashley, Andrea, and Natalie from S22... I like Chelsea and I think she's more interesting than she might appear, but she also could go the Kelly Czarnecki route of an irrelevant borewhore.
Colton is Brandon Quinton. He will be on the jury and consider himself to be a better player than he is.
I disagree with you on Jonas; he's one of my top three picks to win. I think that if there are enough aggressive people this season, then Jonas can and will very easily get into a good spot to let them self-destruct around him, observe what's happening and sneak by because he is likable and isn't the biggest target. Serious Earl Cole vibes from this guy.
Nina is the lesser Holly is the lesser Julie is the lesser Dawn... Next.
Jay will be Brett. Nice guy who does well but is bland and does not make finals. Ho hum.
I don't get what the hell kind of vibe you got off Christina; re-watch that shit. She's talking about how she's FUN and FUNNY and GOOFY and SILLY and is easy pre-merge boot fodder.
I think you're overestimating Troy's sanity haha. There's about a 1 in 5 shot at him being the lesser Ozzy/Terry/etc and about a 4 in 5 shot at him being the lesser Coach
No WAY to Matt, you kidding me? He'll try too hard to play an aggressive, "strategic" game and be voted out for it because he's a fucking arrogant cock. He's a dick and he isn't winning or even making it far. He's like an unlikable Marty/David/etc. He isn't making it that far.
Agreed hardcore about Kim