I watched the cast interviews on CBS.com, then the superpass videos that were longer, some padcast overviews from some of the links on the left side of the page, and now for the first time I will read their bios while I post my thoughts.
Adam
Pros: He sounds like a big fun guy that everyone should enjoy. Use that to coast into the jury, then he can go into game mode.
Cons: Loud people can be annoying. He needs to be aware of the people around him.
Caution: Evel Dick, Howie, Ronnie, Janelle and Rachel are people he likes. I heard rumors that any number of those people could return. He can't be too starstruck, but since he knows how they play he should out maneuver them.
Chances to win: medium
Cassi
Pros: She can hang out with the guys. I'm thinking someone like Brittany from last season.
Cons: This could mean that she is catty towards girls.
Chances to win: high
Dominic
Pros: Knows that he needs to fly UTR in the beginning.
Cons: Might get too into the team portion of the game.
Caution: He holds strong feelings towards Jessie and Jeff. Could be good or bad for either person.
Chances to win: high
Kalia
Pros: Adventurous should help her do the challenges, as long as there is no snake challenges.
Cons: Admits to being dramatic.
Caution: Don't be a pawn to Will if he comes into the game.
Chances to win: high
Keith
Pros: Hes smart and knows people because of his job.
Cons: All he talks about in his strategy is 'Keith's Angels'. Well there is only two single girls right now. He better hope that more get brought into the house through the twist. Also since hes thought so hard about this strategy, he might have nothing else.
Caution: I like using the women, but that is very dangerous.
Chances to win: medium
Lawon
Pros: He knows the game and Dr. Will. Maybe he has more strategy than his profile shows. I think the cast will love or hate him.
Cons: Out of the group he might be an outsider early if no one does anything stupid (see twist)
Chances to win: low
Porsche
Pros: Hottie of the season.
Cons: Might be too immature.
Caution: Don't turn into Natalie.
Chances to win: medium
Shelly
Pros: Shes very motivated
Cons: Older people have harder time getting to the end. She might be left around to be the Mom of the house, but will they let her get to the end?
Caution: Depending on how the age skews lower or high, she could be helped or hurt. Traditionally its a younger group.
Chances to win: low
I will refrain from judging or making much comments on the twist until its unveiled.
Here is my final recap of the season and how they finished in my rankings.
Before I get into the rankings I will be mentioning my ranking of seasons. This part of my formula is nowhere near perfect because its hard to tell what is hard or better in making a season and how do you calculate it. My current rankings which is under a version 2.6 right now takes the amount of players and see how many are in the 75th% quartile, 25th% quartile, then take the amount of challenges
1. Rob Mariano (79.80) - Sole Survivor
vs Rob Mariano (78.94) - Survivor All-Stars Runner-up
Yes his game play was very close to the same. He was a more physical threat in All Stars since he was younger. But those 8 votes for him really nudged him over. For the record this makes him the 5th and 6th best performances on survivor.
Now on my ranking the survivor seasons by toughness of competition and number of challenges, Rob drops to #18 six spots lower than his #12 performance in All Stars because lets face it, he was going up against some tough guys.
Now I also have a Professional Survivor List where I combine all the previous seasons for each survivor that appear at least twice and get an average. Then I put a multiplier on the seasons and Boston Rob ends up at #25 out of 41. Which I think is very fair since he either goes to the finals or doesn't make the jury.
Now back to his game play because it sounds like I am taking away from his win today. Because I kinda am, but I do need to give him his props. He won great. He has the title, great. He owns a bunch of survivor records (most wins, most group immunity wins, most individual immunity wins, tied for most challenges participation, most days on the island, second most votes for a contestant, third most votes against a player, 25 times voting with the majority block which is tied for the most with 3 other people, second most times in tribal...).
Now please retire.
2. Ashley Underwood (74.4) - Jury
This girl really surprised me. I think she might have been sandbagging those early challenges. Going off just the numbers shes ranked 23rd. She got the raw end of the deal that alot of people get when you just miss the jury, ie. Rob Cesterino. She really would have made a better stand against Rob, might have made it a 5-4 vote.
Now my rant on how bad a player she is. and how much of a Bitch she was towards Andrea and in general. She keeps protecting her game play that was clearly flawed. Keeping Rob that late in the game was a huge mistake that probably wouldn't have paid off even if she went to the finals. Yes she knew about the HII. But why didn't she tell Andrea we need to vote Philip. that would have made it 3 girls and Rob. Andrea would have been on their side and if she won then Rob would have gone. Had Rob won like he did this last time then Andrea would have gone and Ashley would have been in the final 3. But this is the problem with the whole tribe's thinking, no foresight. They would rather play with their "friends" than branch out and try other ways to the finals.
3. Mike Chiesl (72.4) - Jury
Went out gracefully and would have been the highest rated person had his team had the upper hand in the merge. Maybe not win, but he would have been ranked high(er) like Colby.
4. Grant Mattos (70.2) - Jury
Sure he was kinda bitter. But hes married and was such a nice guy. I wonder if he wasn't more in control than the editors wanted us to think.
5. Andrea Boehlke (69.4) - Jury
Well she got back in the game and then got Elrod'd. She did all she could her life depended on Matt the whole game. Had Matt avoided shaking the Zap's hands after the challenge he wouldn't have been next. Had He joined the Zap's and not told Rob he would have been safe. Then her next shot was with out Matt and I really have to say that Ashley is... OK I took this out and rewrote it up next to Ashley. Andrea really did try her hardest and put her self in good positions. But you can't help it when all three times the person that you needed on your side wasn't playing the game.
6. Matt Elrod (67.7) - Jury
Great job man. As a fellow Christian I admire his faith and how he stuck with it. I wish he would have won the 100,000$ instead of listening to Jeff say that Rob's already millionaire wife gets to go shopping with it.
Of course his game was very one sided. His Outwit score was 42.73%, the only people to get 100% were medivac'd out of the game. That ranking puts him #310 out of 389. His Outplay was 68% at #17
7. Natalie Tenerelli (67.0) - 2nd Runner-up
Too young. and I really hate hearing that oh she is only 19. She was mature enough to get on the show and we other young contestants like... jenna Morasca (winner, 21 years old) eliza orlins (36 days, 21 years old) rafe judkins (38 days, 22 years old) todd herzog (winner, 22 years old) ken hoang (36 days, 22 year sold) jud birza (winner, 21 years old). So these amazing players were only 2-3 years older than Natalie, weve only had 3 under 21 players Frosti, Purple Kelly, and Natalie T. All three of them making it past the merge. So I really dont see her just showing up and not quiting means we should give her game respect.
8. Ralph Kiser (63.1) - Jury
Oh he was fun. And who would have guessed he was going to throw a vote towards Phlite.
9. Philip Sheppard (60.3) - 1st Runner-up
You made it. but damn I was expecting something a little better regarding your final speech.
10. Julie Wolfe (58.4) - Jury
Wow you claim you found God and you become pretty bitter on the jury.
11. Steve Wright (57.2) - Jury
Nice to see Philip forgive you. But man you are so boring and were so out of it.
12. Sarita White (55.3) - OUT
Yeah, you needed to be better in challenges to make it farther. Or maybe have someone better in challenges, like replace steve with gary hogebom and you would have been final 3.
13. David Murphy (50.3) - Jury
nice jury speech but he was hyped too much for me to be satisfied with him. its like CBS hired a lawyer to be on the show to make sure Rob wins.
14. Stephanie Valencia (40.3) - OUT
Feisty little firecracker. You needed to 1: work harder to get back into the fold because they turned on Sarita so it was possible. 2: dont ruin your chances by aligning with the minority so fast and openly.
15. Krista Klumpp (37.5) - OUT
Nice on RI, boring in the show.
16. Kristina Kell (31.0) - OUT
Oh, such potential. luck of the draw she was on the wrong team.
17. Russell Hantz (30.8) - OUT
Please wait 5 years before you get back on the show. Then you might be able to win it. If you can make it back on the show and make the jury you might be better than Rob.
18. Francesca Hogli (10.7) - OUT
Wrong tribe. Or maybe just bad casting on her tribe.
OK this season is over with and we will be back to Samoa. as long as im not on the show next season i will be back doing my power rankings, probably on my own site.
redemption island coming back, ehh hopefully its tweaked. end it at the merge and beef up the challenges.
There is no need to go over much more. I covered most of it last post. So I'll just gloss over the rest and give the updated points.
1. Rob Mariano (79.0)
Top 5 people ever... Tom Westman - Pulau (85.07), JT Thomas Jr - Tocantins (82.3), Oscar "Ozzy" Lusth - Cook Islands (82.13), Brian Heidik - Thailand (81.28), Rob
Mariano - AllStars (78.94)
So hes past his All-Stars' result. he just needs to keep it up.
2. Ashley Underwood (76.3)
Yes, some game play. she is setting her self up well. take out Grant, then take out Rob. Then make it a Nat-Ash-Phil final.
3. Mike Chiesl (74.6)
If he continues his dominance he has this thing won.
4. Natalie Tenerelli (73.9)
Shes in the finals. This past week was the time to get rid of her to break up the duo before someone can come back from redemption island. She really needs a bitter jury against Rob.
5. Grant Mattos (71.1)
NOOOO!! I am really surprised. I thought Rob wanted Grant to beat the returning castaway, Now there is a chance at Grant coming back; now with a vengeance.
6. Andrea Boehlke (70.7)
YAY!! she won, thank God Ralph can't even spell his own name. She might have more will than Matt but she isn't in the same physical realm as Matt, Mike, and Grant. The only thing she needs is a female oriented final duel like the one Sarita had against Matt.
7. Matt Elrod (69.5)
Two sides of the coin. Does he deserve it if he makes it to the end? This season hes 14th in Outwitting, but #1 in Outplay. I will also have to reevaluate my Outlast algorithm. Right now he gets credit for all 35 days, but in the Outcast twist of Pearl Islands I didn't count the time they were out of the game. Maybe He should only get credit for half of the time out there...
8. Philip Sheppard (65.0)
Last going into the finale, but imho shoe in to be in the final 3. Some say he might be playing an Andy Kauffman strategy, but I believe hes laying it on too thick for anyone to get over all the things you did.
9. Ralph Kiser (64.2) - OUT
10. Julie Wolfe (59.8*) - OUT
11. Steve Wright (58.1*) - OUT
12. Sarita White (57.2*) - OUT
13. David Murphy (51.6*) - OUT
14. Krista Klumpp (43.1*) - OUT
15. Stephanie Valencia (42.2*) - OUT
16. Kristina Kell (31.0) - OUT
17. Russell Hantz (30.8) - OUT
18. Francesca Hogli (10.7) - OUT
Ok, so with 8 people in the final episode one person will leave this Wednesday episode.
Then my predictions will be a Duel opening the finale on Sunday, winner of that gets back into the game. That would leave 5 people roughly 20 mins into the game when you count the intro, recap, challenge, and the reaction of this happening.
Then there shoulds be 2 challenges and 2 rewards narrowing it down to 3 people and then the jury.
1. Rob Mariano (78.4)
What new can I say about the Robfather. Lets analyze the stats. His numbers are at a record high. My records only have 5 people finishing higher than him right now. Tom Westman - Pulau (85.07), JT Thomas Jr - Tocantins (82.3), Oscar "Ozzy" Lusth - Cook Islands (82.13), Brian Heidik - Thailand (81.28), Rob Mariano - AllStars (78.94)
Now before I start to hype Rob up. the stats aren't final because unless he gets a perfect jury vote his outwit score will go down some. And there is a chance he doesn't win another challenge. Personally I think JT, Brian and Rob's first time had much harder competition than Redemption Island. That is something I can't calculate until the show ends. So once I do that I predict his score to be deflated some.
2. Grant Mattos (72.9)
Grant on the other hand is sitting right between #36 Tom Buchanan and #37 Clay Jordan.
Grant you are my only hope. I am pulling for the guy. The girls have done nothing. Philip has been playing too hard/bad, Rob has had an unfair advantage, and everyone on redemption island has already been voted out at least once, Outcast/Lillian syndrome.
3. Natalie Tenerelli (72.1)
I guess I have to try to give her a recap since she is looking like the winner. (also the youngest and hottest winner) I don't see her going home this week. She is the only one I consider 100% safe.
Lets run the only scenario of her going home. Ashley, Grant and Philip vote for Natalie because they suspect Rob using his idol.
3. Mike Chiesl (72.1)
Tied for third. but at a very big disadvantage because he must win the rest of the challenges to get to the finals where Natalie could lose the rest of the challenges.
5. Ashley Underwood (70.8)
She has to make a big move. Im hoping that when Rob is upset because his plans are screwed up, he is referencing Ashley winning immunity since she is the one to go home this next week.
6. Andrea Boehlke (66.2)
My girl is gone :(. It's sad to see her go, but she never made her killer move. had she made the move she would have been in the driver's seat but she never did. I don't see her coming back into the game, so much so that I changed my overall pick to Natalie, who is bound to make the finals.
7. Matt Elrod (64.7)
Where Mike and Andrea was only voted out once, he was voted out twice. I dont know if the God vote will push him to the victory if he makes the finals. Right now I count that he can easily get: Mike, Steve, Julie, and Andrea. I think the best shot for Matt would be a split vote from the other two finalist.
8. Philip Sheppard (62.9)
The family visit he eludes to this all being an act. But I'm still not buying it. His act almost got him kicked out so many times. And I really don't think the Andy Kaufman strategy is the best when your stripped to your core.
9. Ralph Kiser (62.2)
No move to prove that he can Outwit, no win to prove that he can win the challenge.
10. Julie Wolfe (60.6*) - OUT
11. Sarita White (60.0*) - OUT
12. Steve Wright (57.2) - OUT
13. David Murphy (50.3) - OUT
14. Stephanie Valencia (40.3) - OUT
15. Krista Klumpp (37.5) - OUT
16. Kristina Kell (31.0) - OUT
17. Russell Hantz (30.8) - OUT
18. Francesca Hogli (10.7) - OUT
Hey guys, I started doing the math to figure out how there is going to get 8 people for the finale. But my head started to hurt so I'll just wait until next week when it should be a lot easier to guess.
1. Rob Mariano (74.3)
Another win, another person goes home. He as now tied Amanda Kimmel with 108 days on the island, which means he's tied for second place. And barring him falling in the fire he has the second place all to him self with 109 and probably day 110 happening before he can leave the game.
I've mentioned about its not fair for professional survivors to play against newbies (Guatemala/Micronesia). And that hes setting himself up for a bitter jury like in All-Stars. But he is playing the game so well. He really is like Neo from the matrix.
2. Grant Mattos (71.8)
Another win and another person goes home... humm it sounds familiar. Some reason Grant isn't enemy #1 in Rob's eyes.
3. Natalie Tenerelli (71.0)
She is soooooo boring. But hot too. Whats even hotter, is shes very likely a millionaire.
Yes shes so boring I will re-use my comment :).
4. Andrea Boehlke (69.8)
Its time for my girl to win or go home. I think Grant is hoping she goes home easily and then all he has to do is win two challenges. Ashley probably thinks shes in the finals with Rob. And then Nat and Philip are in the finals with Rob. So Andrea is the only person that benefits mixing it up. she has always been on the outs.
5. Ashley Underwood (69.7)
She is the only one not to win a challenge. If she doesn't win one the she will get no votes at the final tribal. Maybe more because of her being a horrible human being, but not winning anything without the help of the mentalist, the specialist, and the assassination will prove she is worthless.
6. Mike Chiesl (65.1)
Time keeps on ticking ticking. The more people that goes to Redemption Island means less challenges he has to win to get back into the game. Day 31 should be the duel so it might only be 8 days and 5 challenges for him to win a million dollars.
7. Matt Elrod (62.5)
Back to his old days of dominating, even if it was a lame shuffleboard challenge.
I have to question his Outwitting more than usual when he gave Andrea the I'm pissed at you face. I think he's totally forgetting that he went behind her back and told Rob that "they" were going to vote him out, when he said that they wont tell anyone. He needs Andrea for him to get the $100,000. I don't see a jury rewarding someone that was voted out twice, granted Rob was voted out twice (Marquesas/Heroes vs Villains)
8. Philip Sheppard (61.2)
The numbers put him here. I know someone said last time that Philip has a good chance to win it but I still don't think so. Interesting the power ranking put him in between the four Redemption Island.
9. Julie Wolfe (58.4) - OUT
10. Ralph Kiser (56.8)
Got redemption last week by spelling Rob's name correctly. Now you can go home.
11. Steve Wright (56.4)
His heart's not in the game.
12. Sarita White (55.3) - OUT
13. David Murphy (50.3) - OUT
14. Stephanie Valencia (40.3) - OUT
15. Krista Klumpp (37.5) - OUT
16. Kristina Kell (31.0) - OUT
17. Russell Hantz (30.8) - OUT
18. Francesca Hogli (10.7) - OUT
Ive been doing some small recaps. I wanted to make a picture and I thought some people might enjoy it.