I will never understand the algorithm of #casting, but I finally won a game in since March 2023 with 1 key, 7786 Checks, and a comp average rank of 3.62 (meaning I was in the Top 4 in the comps by average).
I always thought you needed to be the best comp scorer with a key to win, but I had the highest checks the entire game (most time from day 2 to 13). Maybe the game is more balanced or maybe best checks with a key will win? Who knows!