I compiled data from the 15 most recently completed Rookies games. I measured what I call the "betrank", which is that player's relative standing among all bets made in a game. For example, between three people, if Alice had T$30 in bets, Bob had T$20 in bets, and Carol had T$10 in bets, Alice's betrank was 1, Bob's was 2, and Carol's was 3. In the event of ties, I awarded the lower (better) betrank.
In short, the lower the average betrank, the more often the player in that position was bet upon.
Here are the average betranks of first through tenth place in Rookies games over the last 15 games.
This data suggests that there is a correlation between betrank and success in Rookies, at least among the top positions.
In 15 games, the player who received the most bets won 9 times, and came in second 2 times.
In 15 games, the player receiving the second most bets placed among the top 3 positions 10 times.
Does this suggest anything? I think it means that either the community is really good at betting, or that the community is good at interfering with games after they've placed their bets.
The theory about successful interference seems more likely when you look at the actual amounts of T$ that were bet. Over 15 games, the winner had an average of T$188 bet on them. The second place position had an average of T$104 bet on them. The remainder of the positions (3rd through 10th) only had an average of T$78 worth of bets TOTAL.
Among 19 instances when more than T$50 of bets were placed on a player, only two of them failed to pay out.
Among 9 instances when more than T$100 of bets were placed on a player, only one of them failed to make the the top two positions.
So what do you think? Is Rookies compromised by betting? Do the runaway successes of bettors disrupt the Tengaged economy?
