1st. 🇨🇭 Switzerland
While Switzerland has drifted in the odds throughout the week I still think that at the end of the day they are the most likely semi-final winner. I think juries will have really appreciated this, and that it'll have won the jury vote last night. I'm more concerned about televoters because I can imagine the performance coming off as a bit too avant-garde and dare I say pretentious for the average viewer, but I also think that this type of French-ballad has pretty wide appeal.
2nd. 🇧🇬 Bulgaria
I reckon Victoria or Gjon definitely won the jury vote. Victoria's performance looks visually stunning, and I think the songs televote appeal might be underappreciated. I think it's a touching song and performance that will resonate with viewers.
3rd. 🇮🇸 Iceland
Unlike Think About Things, I still don't get winner vibes from 10 Years. I'm unsure whether the fact they won't get to perform live will hurt or help them - but quite frankly I don't think it matters. I think the hype for Iceland is too big for them to crash out outside of the top ten. This is qualifying.
4th. 🇸🇲 San Marino
Potential televote winner thanks to Flo Rida's involvement. The fact that Flo Rida appears on stage will be a major talking point for commentators all across Europe. The song is also performed well both vocally and energetically. Senhit is having the time of her life. I could see jurors giving this points as well.
5th. 🇬🇷 Greece
WTF at the green screen. I think this could have been a potential winner until I saw the cheap green screen effects. The performance genuinely looks amazing UNTIL the green screen. Vocally, Stefania is strong. The song is also jury-bait. Any mishaps with the green screen won't affect its overall placement, but its become the biggest nuisance of mine.
6th. 🇫🇮 Finland
There's nothing else quite like this in the semi-final, so naturally I can see it attracting a lot of televotes. I'm not sure whether juries rate this highly, but I think this qualifies off televote alone.
7th. 🇵🇹 Portugal
Jury winner alert? I would not be shocked if this becomes a surprising jury favourite of this years competition. The song is classy, and appears to be executed well on stage. At the same time, I could see Portugal being this years Blackbird - a song that grew in peoples estimations after rehearsals thanks to thoughtful staging. But at the end of the day, the song didn't connect with enough people. I'm leaning toward qualification, but I don't think it's AS certain as some people have made it out to be.
8th. 🇷🇸 Serbia
The Serbian diaspora better come through for these girls, and given their relative popularity I think they will. Hurricane also have the potential to overshadow Moldova coming on two performances after it. I think Hurricane sell this song vocally, and that the songs arrangement is enough to secure a big chunk of televotes.
9th. 🇦🇹 Austria
If we get a random jury winner in the semi-final, I think Austria is another contender for that title. It's a well-sung ballad. I suspect its televote will be *low*, and that MIGHT be the nail in its coffin, but I don't think 100+ points from the jury is off the table.
10th. 🇦🇱 Albania
So many people appear to be impressed by Anxhela's performance, commenting that it surpassed their expectations. For that reason I hope Albania can get into the final. I also think people naturally underrate the power of the Albanian diaspora, and the average viewer's predisposition to gravitate toward ethnic songs. I think Albania fits the ethnic niche in this semi-final quite nicely, so I can see it scraping into the final in 9th or 10th place, much like Jonida in 2019.
11th. 🇲🇩 Moldova
I think Moldova this year is possibly a case of a song being underestimated by the press because of the underwhelming staging (relative to expectations), but the rest of Europe won't have the same frame of reference as we do (having seen the music video). As a standalone performance, I could see viewers getting behind this. I think the song is impactful enough to translate into votes. I have Moldova on the borderline, but I do think there's a path for Natalia to get through to the final.
12th. 🇩🇰 Denmark
As much as I love this song, I still don't see a path for it to get to the final. I think this will do moderately well in the televote but not as well as some people suspect. I can't see this type of music having much appeal to all the southern European countries voting in this semi-final (of which there are a lot), and additionally I suspect juries will rank this very, very low. I think it's a fun show closer and on that basis alone I COULD see it sneaking through, but I suspect it won't amass enough points to do so.
13th. 🇨🇿 Czech Republic
I so so so so so so want Benny in the final, but I fear it gets lost in the running order. I'm also not sure whether the correct creative decisions have been made on stage. From what I've seen, the staging feels too dark for a song this colourful. Benny needs an energetic performance to shine, and I hope he delivers on that front.
14th. 🇱🇻 Latvia
I thought there was a chance this could crack the top 10 in the jury vote thanks to Samanta's vocal alone, but I hear she had a poor vocal during last night's jury show. Oh, well. I just hope Samanta has a good time.
15th. 🇪🇪 Estonia
There was always a chance for Uku to pull a Victor Crone in that he's an attractive white man performing a middle-of-the-road easily accessible pop song. But coming off the heels of San Marino's performance featuring Flo Rida, I think Estonia will be completely forgotten. I think people will be too busy processing San Marino to pay any attention to this. The running order does it no favours.
16th. 🇵🇱 Poland
I could see this placing higher because I think there's a chance for it to appeal to casual viewers, and we can also never underestimate the power of a Polish diaspora, but I don't think even the diaspora cares enough to vote for this. And if the diaspora does come through, the juries will rightfully tank it. This has last place in the jury vote written all over it, and deservedly so.
17th. 🇬🇪 Georgia
One of the most obvious last placers I've heard. I've come to enjoy the song more than ironically (I think there are some beautiful moments to the instrumental), but I can't imagine anyone bothering to pick up the phone for this.
