Based on rehearsals and reviews, I think semi-final 2 has eight "guaranteed" qualifiers, or at least very likely qualifiers.
Norway
Denmark
Moldova
Australia
Poland
Hungary
Sweden
Ukraine
Denmark is probably the most questionable choice but I think it's making it.
Netherlands would have been included in this group but their rehearsal has put qualification into question. However, I still think Netherlands will qualify.
This would leave one spot open and I would personally like to see Latvia, Malta or Slovenia qualify. I think Malta is probably the most likely to qualify out of the three.
If Russia qualifies I'm going to be super disappointed.
Russia better not qualify. They don't have many friends in this semi either who I think would save them?? Especially since they're not on good terms with Ukraine and Georgia l0l
I agree with most of your predictions though. I see Hungary and Poland as more borderline, but still very likely to qualify.
And Hvala Ne better be making the final over Taboo (I also really want Latvia to qualify but idk if the song is enough)
Oh wait, just realized you don't have Romania listed. I think they have a fair shot at qualifying too. The staging seemed pretty good, her vocals were spot on, and they have Moldova