It's time for my annual semi-final review and predictions. As always, everything comes down to the live performances so take my thoughts with a grain of salt as we really can't be sure of anything until rehearsals begin. But now that we have an official running order, it's the perfect time to make some tentative predictions. As always, I'll be starting with the first semi-final.
This semi-final is quite tough to predict. Despite most of the contest favourites being in this semi-final, nothing at Eurovision is guaranteed and I think this is a semi-final of dark horses that could or could not surprise people and qualify.
I'm going to review each country individually and state what I believe to be their chances of qualifying. Countries will be placed into one of five categories: certain qualifier, likely qualifier, borderline qualifier, likely non-qualifier, and certain non-qualifier. The label of DARK HORSE will be added wherever I feel applicable.
01 Azerbaijan - Borderline qualifier. This is a good show opener. Aisel will be smothered in backing vocals, and we can expect a strong stage show. I can, however, easily see this year being the year Azerbaijan misses out. Most of their friends are voting in the second semi-final, and there are considerably better pop songs in the first semi-final. I think Azerbaijan has the best chance of qualifying out of the borderlines, but I wouldn't put it past them to miss out.
02 Iceland - Certain non-qualifier. This is almost self-explanatory: dated ballad performing second. The running order was the last nail in the coffin. I don't think anything can resurrect this.
03 Albania - Likely non-qualifier (dark horse). Great singer, but the draw lets them down this year. In theory, however, Albania can qualify. They're in a very friendly semi-final (neighbors wise), and I can see the juries ranking this quite highly too. I'm considering them a dark horse for those exact reasons, but I think qualification will be an uphill battle for Albania.
04 Belgium - Likely qualifier. Belgium's draw could be better but I think the song is too good to miss out. I think A Matter of Time will surely have appeal with the juries, and that alone should get it through to the Final.
05 Czech Republic - Likely qualifier. Mikolas was expected to open the show, but I think spot #5 does them more justice. We know Mikolas can sing, and we can hopefully expect a strong stage show. My only concern is that Czech Republic don't have a strong track record, but that's also because they've never entered a modern pop song like this. Given what we know about the singer and performance, I don't think juries will punish this, meaning that Czechia is on their way to the Final.
06 Lithuania - Likely non-qualifier (dark horse). The reason I'm listing this as a non-qualifier is because I think the song is easily overshadowed. However, the frailty of the song (and singer) is a reason why I see this appealing to a wide cross-section of people. If Ieva has the ability to touch viewers, I think she's in with a shot.
07 Israel - Certain qualifier. Israel is leading the odds, and have a favourable draw. Even if Israel doesn't live up to the hype, I don't think there's any way they don't qualify.
08 Belarus - Likely non-qualifier. I felt that Belarus could have been a dark horse but their running order solidified their place as a likely non-qualifier. Alekseev's national final performance put qualification up in the air to begin with, and being positioned between the top two with the oddsmakers (Israel and Estonia) feels like a death sentence. If Belarus was performing in Semi-Final 2, I could see them qualifying based on the votes from the Eastern bloc alone, but I think the first semi-final will be a lot less generous.
09 Estonia - Certain qualifier. Estonia appears to be a lock taking into account Elina's live vocals, known stage show, and draw. My only reservation is that Estonia tends to be overrated by the bookies, and the juries have a tendency to rank them lower than expected (2015 case in point), but Elina has all the right ingredients to qualify.
10 Bulgaria - Likely qualifier. Bulgaria will either be amazing or a disaster. Given the amount of time BNT have had to prepare their song, I'm expecting a strong performance to accompany the song. Their biggest hurdle will be having to perform following Estonia, but I don't see that as a reason for non-qualification. If Bulgaria doesn't qualify, it'll be because they did too much.
11 FYR Macedonia - Likely non-qualifier (dark horse). Macedonia got screwed over by the draw for the second year in a row. If the song was on later, I'd be more optimistic. This will strictly come down to live performance. If Eye Cue is good live, this can qualify. It has over one million YouTube views for a reason, and it's because people like the song.
12 Croatia - Certain non-qualifier. Croatia feels like a song that is in contention for last place in the semi-final. By no means is it the worst song (I think Iceland takes that title), but the worst song rarely finishes last. Rather, the most forgettable song finishes last (pending any live disasters), and I think Crazy is extremely forgettable. I don't see this making any impact whatsoever, and will probably be completely overshadowed by later acts.
13 Austria - Borderline qualifier (dark horse). I think Austria is being overlooked this year, but I still consider it a borderline qualifier for that reason. Austria's saving grace this year very well could be the juries. This feels like a song that could score top five with the juries. I think this could do well in the televote as well but I'm still considering it borderline due to the sheer nature of the semi-final.
14 Greece - Certain qualifier. Greece have their best song in years in a southern heavy semi-final. Greece is qualifying.
15 Finland - Borderline qualifier. Saara's fall from potential winner to potential non-qualifier is quite sad. However, we know that Saara can sing, and we know that the stage show is being switched up from UMK. This is a really strong pop song that I think will appeal to first time viewers like it did to most of us when we first heard it. I think Saara's chances are good.
16 Armenia - Borderline qualifier. As much as I like the Armenian song, I sometimes struggle thinking who would vote for this besides the Armenian diaspora. Armenia has been overrated by the bookies in the past (2017 especially), hence why I believe there is more caution this year. I still think this trends toward qualification, but wouldn't be surprised if it's out.
17 Switzerland - Borderline qualifier. The biggest thing in Zibbz's favour right now is the draw. The revamp also did this a lot of justice. The song sounds way more polished, and that could be enough for this to slip through into the Final.
18 Ireland - Likely non-qualifier (dark horse). From the beginning I've said that Ireland will benefit from a lack of LED's in Lisbon. If Ryan is able to create a mood (think Belgium 2010), I think this could qualify. The draw helps out too. The contrast alone between this and Cyprus could be enough to push both into the Final.
19 Cyprus - Likely qualifier. This went from borderline to likely qualifier following the release of the running order. I think this has the potential of being a truly fantastic show closer, and likely to erase the successes of any pop songs that came before it (mostly Finland and Switzerland). The live performance is still important here as if anything was to sink this it WOULD be the performance, but I have faith.
Following the Czech Republic we've reached the cap for the amount of songs we should statistically expect to qualify from the first half of the semi-final. However, I think Azerbaijan will be the sixth. Azerbaijan not qualifying helps out Armenia, Switzerland and FYR Macedonia the most as I think one of those countries would be the most likely to take their qualification spot, musically speaking.
The most dangerous block of songs is likely from Austria (#13) to Cyprus (#19). I don't think any more than four of these songs can qualify. Greece feels the most certain, though there's a possibility that Greece and Armenia take votes away from one another. Cyprus and Finland have a similar problem. Therefore, Switzerland and Ireland appear to be the most distinct sounding entries from this group, so a qualification for *one* of them isn't out of the question.
Altogether, I think everyone has somewhat of a chance to qualify from this semi-final with the exceptions of Iceland and Croatia. Let the bloodbath commence.
This semi has caused me SO MUCH stress though and the fact that I have to deal with it for another month is not enjoyable in any sense. I honestly think any country (besides Iceland and Croatia :( ) could qualify. Each song has a distinct sound, their own perks and downfalls, and will each have their own fanbase. However, I do think the first 7 you listed as qualifiers seem likely. Could see any countries taking the last 3 spots...
Also will be a year where all votes matter. The fact that Cyprus/Greece will exchange 24 points with each other and Azerbaijan/Armenia will automatically give each other 0 will matter A LOT, especially considering these are some countries that could go either way... it'll be interesting (and heartbreaking) to see what happens :)))
MY HEART </3
This semi has caused me SO MUCH stress though and the fact that I have to deal with it for another month is not enjoyable in any sense. I honestly think any country (besides Iceland and Croatia :( ) could qualify. Each song has a distinct sound, their own perks and downfalls, and will each have their own fanbase. However, I do think the first 7 you listed as qualifiers seem likely. Could see any countries taking the last 3 spots...
Also will be a year where all votes matter. The fact that Cyprus/Greece will exchange 24 points with each other and Azerbaijan/Armenia will automatically give each other 0 will matter A LOT, especially considering these are some countries that could go either way... it'll be interesting (and heartbreaking) to see what happens :)))