Is it time to buy or sell if you are the Kansas City Royals?
With the trade dead line just a week away, the Royals are faced with a decision on rather they should trade Ervin Santana in hope to make the team stronger for next year or to keep him and try to be a winning team this year.
The Royals are currently 46-51 and are 8 games back from the American League Central, lead by the Detroit Tigers. They are also 9 games back from a Wild Card spot which are currently held by the Tampa Bay Rays and the Baltimore Orioles. With a tough schedule ahead it is looking less and less likely that the Royals will be able to make a run for the playoffs. With 65 games left of the season, they will have to play the Tigers and Indians, the two teams they are trying to chase down in the American League Central, 17 more times. Also, with all the postponed games due to rain and the Boston Bombing Massacrer, starting July 31 thru September 11, the Royals will have to play 44 games in 44 days. With a schedule this tough, ESPN is giving the Royals only a 4.3% chance of making the post season. So is it possible for the Royals to make the post season? Yes. Is it likely that they will make the post season? Statistically, no.
Ervin Santana is having one of the best pitching performances of his career this year. He has pitched a solid 6 plus innings in all but one of his 19 starts. He has a modest 6-6 record with a 3.18 ERA. He is also coming off his best start of the season when he beat the Tigers and gave up just 2 hits, 1 walk, no runs and 6 strike outs through 7.1 innings. There is no question that if the Royals were to put him on the trading block that many teams would be interested in a possible trade. But what could the Royals possibly get in return? At best they could get some top prospects from another team and hope they develop into good players in the next few years. But is that worth the gamble even though this will most likely be Santanas last year in Kansas City? Dayton Moore, GM of the Royals, doesn't seem to think so.
"Yeah, Santana is a free agent," Moore said when asked about trading Santana, "but there's no reason this team can't go on a run where you win 15 of 20. So I'm not going (to put myself in a position) to look back and say, 'I wish we hadn't done that. We've won 18 games before in September with lesser talent. So I'm going to stick with the plan."
While Dayton Moore would like to "Stick with the plan" and hold on to Santana, there is a major possibility that they could lose more than just games come the end of the season. Since Santana is a free agent at the end of the year, the Royals would not be able to trade him to acquire prospects to help build this team. An opportunity that Moore has now, and that many would argue, an opportunity he needs to take to give the Royals a chance to be competitive in the years to come. Also, Ned Yost's contract expires at the end of this year and Moore's contract expires at the end of next year. If there is no steps being taken to make the team better for the long hall, could their jobs also be on the line?
It is clear that the following week is going to be a tough one for the Royals. A decision will have to be made on rather or not to trade Ervin Santana. They will have to decide which is more important, winning now or add pieces to the team that may or may not give them a better chance to win later. One thing is for sure, whatever decision that Dayton Moore makes, it will impact his career as a GM.
