Post Premiere assessment, basically week 1 assessment :
Ashley is a QUEEN and she's 100% not the first 3 boots, and... honestly usually she keeps a low profile, but this time, idk whether getting the safety temptation may make her play more aggressively, or maybe the fact she lied to her alliance about it might make her a target? But, meh. I expect she AT LEAST makes jury cuz I think her social game so far has been strong (mind you it's week 1) and she's even making nice with her rival Nathan, so.... idk. I do know some people (Brien) mentioned concern that her rivalry with Nathan was faux, so... idk. I think she's relatively safe and is certainly lasting 3 more weeks at least.
Adam(LovesEverything) is viewed as a troll and his rivalry with John/Memphis certainly makes him an Insta target, BUT that could be a perfect reason to keep him around, and be used as a goat and or shield. There's really not much else to him. I maybe see him being carried and maybe even end up as a F2 goat, I don't see him winning though.
Garret's biggest problem is his controversial troll blogs sometimes, which is bad for his relationship with John (Memphis) in particularly. He's okay socially, sometimes he's a little dumb. I hope he does well cuz he's my bestie, but.. I don't know sometimes he's a bit controversial and problematic, but so far that hasn't hurt him in this game yet. I see him being safe for now at least.
AJ has a lot of iconic moments that I LIVE for, but ATM I haven't seen him play much game yet, maybe he's made relationships, but so far I haven't seen much of him yet. He was in my Survivor group and right when he started like slaying me he got out. (Which is why I casted him for this, and so far, he's been lowkey slaying me already, but in a UTR fashion) He got screwed in my Survivor, so I genuinely HOPE he doesn't get robbed this time.
Eddie is DRAMA DRAMA DRAMA. He has like 0 chance of winning, but a 90% chance for villain of the season. That's all I got for him. He's gonna be in a lot of fights and it'll be amazing to watch, but I don't think he has the strategy/social element to get to the end and win. Maybe he'll make F2 as a goat, but I don't think he's winning this season.
Jaron already is at an advantage with his coup d'état he can use the entire pre-jury portion of this game, so I definitely don't see him NOT making jury for sure. Other than that, idk about him strategically or socially, I think he could certainly be a contender just cuz he's not deemed a target, he doesn't have any enemies to my knowledge, I think he's decent at comps? Idk overall he's a question mark for me, but with his power, he's a dark horse contender.
Josh has been at the center of so much DRAMA and conversation, he's already almost guaranteed All-Stars and week 1 isn't even over yet. Like, he's such a messy strategist already it's MAD. People think his rivalry is fake, people think he's annoying... He is seemingly a victim in a villain form (goth), but I don't think he even recognizes it, and maybe his ignorance makes him almost a goat, or maybe it'll lead to his demise, but as of rn, him even making jury is a stretch, much less him winning.
Memphis / John has a lot of enemies in this game, and if he focuses on this game, I think that list will only grow. I think he's very outspoken, confrontational (for the greater good tho, not to just be a villain), and if he focuses on this, I don't think people who have altering opinions will get along with him, cuz he definitely does make his opinions known. I do think at the moment he's in a pretty good spot with his alliance, but he does have enemies, so he'll need them to pull through to keep him safe if he wants to get far.
Emmett is another question mark for me, but I certainly see the potential there and if he can start getting social bonds and actually pays attention to this game (he's been active so far) he can be a contender. He IS in an alliance, and they did keep Brien safe