#survivor
HERE IS THE CONTESTANTS STILL IN THE GAME AND HOW I RANKED THEM BASED OFF THEIR CHANCES OF WINNING:
1st: Lauren (+0) I still think Lauren is going to take the w. Did Lauren have a particularly good episode???? HELL NO. BUT it could have been a lot worse. Whenever Wentworth and Lauren were painted as villains......it was Wentworth that took the heat. Also Lauren was shown as the one who threw out the name of Rick to the other ladies. So she did have decent visibility despite not having a confessional. I totally think this episode shielded her from seeming too far out of the loop. That added to her positive content pre merge...I still see her winning. HOWEVER...if she gets the same kind of edit next episode...I might have to re-evaluate that.
2nd: Julie (+2) Julie finally got DECENT strategic content. We literally saw the episode from her perspective (and the thoughts of the Kama 6). FIRST she successfully got the target off of Rick, and was shown as an empathetic person. She also backed up her "I don't wanna go to Extinction island" comment by winning immunity, showing that she is strong-willed. Some people didn't like how she wanted Wentworth out while Ron wanted Joe out given that ultimately Joe was the one voted out. HOWEVER.I think her wanting Wentworth out was the correct intuition to have. Wentworth WOULD HAVE been voted out with her idol. And that would have been key. But now Manu has three idols in their possession. Additionally, she wasn't seen as being top dog/controlling or anything like that. Her edit could have gone the Sierra/Debbie route during Game Changers...but they kept her humble and open to any idea. Thus I think she is in a good position and could overtake Lauren as my top winner pick.
3rd: Victoria (-1) Victoria didn't have a huge episode, but she got just enough content so we knew she was there and still playing the game. I bumped her down a little, just due to the fact that she still has received no personal content. Also, she seemed a little submissive to Julie. (The way she followed Julie around). I wouldn't read too much into that...but next week hopefully we see her separate her strategy talk from what the kama 6 wants...to what I want.
4th: Eric (+0) I get golden boy vibes from Eric. I truly think a woman wins this season. HOWEVER...if a man wins I think it is him. THis wasn't a good episode for him. No confessional or tribal council comments from him. I am going to keep him where he is now...but just like Lauren he really needs good content next week to establish himself as a force in this game.
5th: Rick: Very good episode for Rick. Legit it WAS about him. HOWEVER...his edit is way too down our throats for a winners edit. Survivor has really tried to throw us off over the last seasons. So I think he has a shot to win...HOWEVER...he seems more of a Christian/Davie type player that receives a lot of content...but doesn't reach the end. He probably falls short in the F7-F5 range.
6th: David (+0) Bad episode for David tbh. Why didn't he recieve any content during his conversation with Rick? I honestly don't know. I am also SUPER confused about why David and Kelley like all of a sudden are not working together. So David is honestly such a question mark for me right now. HOWEVER....mixed with newbies who have been ghosted...and people who have super negative edits...he is able to be as high as he is on my list.
7th: Wardog (+0) Honestly a REALLY strange episode for Wardog. He was no where to be found until his one tribal council comment about all the idols coming out at once. I truly have no idea what is going on with Wardogs edit. HOWEVER...he did vote with Kelley/Lolly so I would assume he is still playing with them. Due to other players having a negative edit...I am puting him where he is.
8th: Kelley (-3) Yikes not a good episode for Kelley. Despite recieving ALOT of content. Most of it was BAD content. She was seen as evil to Julie, and unfortunately that kinda panned out to be true. For some reason she wrote down Davids name? I really don't know what to think. HOWEVER....her comment about tribal about playing from the bottom DID seem promising. I wouldn't count her out...but her edit next week NEEEEDS a change in tone. If she has ANOTHER negative episode...I would say its time to count her out.
9th: Gavin (+3) Not a terrible episode for Gavin. He recieved 2 confessionals which is good...HOWEVER neither confessional really offered a whole lot. Basically strictly narrational. So unfortunately for Gavin I really think his edit paints him as being one of the first Kama 6 casuaties. WHY....because he got 2 confessionals last episode. Maybe he will get kinda a Julia/Will/Ciera type edit where they go 2-3 episodes of content before being voted out.
10th: Ron (-2) BAD episode for Ron. Legit went out of the way to paint him as a villian. YES he got his way with the vote..HOWEVER he was really arrogant and douchey for no reason at tribal. I got Debbie level overconfident vibes. While Julie was shown as being open to meeting new people and expanding her game...Ron was not. I expect him to be blindsided next week.
11th: Julia (-1) Not a bad episode for her. HOWEVER...not a good one either. We did get a decent confessional...but her edit is too far gone
12th: Aurora (-1) Legit WORST edit in Survivor history. At least with Chelsea in GI we knew what her game was (playing with Naviti)....with Aurora we know NOTHINNNG about her. I would expect her to be an idol victim or maybe even a rock draw victim.
IOE CHANCE OF RETURNING EDGICALLY
1st: Aubry: Come on...her confessional was awesome. Legit made me shake. When she said that when everyone else is crumbling around her...she knows how to thrive. That IS her survivor story. That girl has unfinished business.
2nd: Chris: I think Chris is getting little content here and there so that we are reminded of him. I think he is physically the biggest threat to return
3rd: Joe: I truly don't think his edit points to him returning
4th: Reem: I see Reem as the face of Extinction Island. Nothing more..nothing less.
MY SURVIVOR TIER SYSTEM.
TIER 1: Lauren and Julie
TIER 2: Eric and Victoria
TIER 3: Rick and David
TIER 4: Wardog and Kelley
TIER 5: Gavin, Ron, Aurora, and Julia
