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Big Brother and online Hunger games.

SURVIVOR 38: MY RANKING ON PROBABILITY OF WINNING:

Mar 14, 2019 by RArsenault
#survivor

I WILL DO TWO SEPARATE LISTS: ONE OF THE PLAYERS IN THE GAME...THE OTHER WITH
PLAYERS NOT IN THE GAME CURRENTLY.

1st: Lauren: People have been underselling her chances of winning. I seriously think her edit is actually quite decent. Also...most often female winners don't have breakout episodes until the latter part of the season. I think her correctly not playing the idol this last vote shows that her intuition in the game is correct. Thus I think the content we have gotten is consistent with a female winner's edit. Also despite her ties to Kelley, the editors tried really hard to show that Lauren had no intentions of telling Kelley about the idol. This independence is good for her I think.

2nd: Victoria: I get really similar Michele 32 vibes. We have seen her a good amount despite NEVER attending tribal to this point. I think that bodes well for her. People have complained about her content being negative...but I really don't think it is that negative. She legit talked to Ron about getting Joe out WHILE JOE WAS STANDING THERE....And in this last episode Joe approached Ron to work with him and Aurora. Dilutional much Joe? Thus this kinda assures that Victoria got around this situation alright. Victoria's content I think is decent all in all...and I think she has a good chance of making it far.

3rd: Eric: I do not see how Eric is some "standout" winner. He has gotten really little content....despite being a white alpha male...yah okay that happens a lot in Survivor. However, I still think his content is better than the rest of Kama. Also...he had a really good first episode.

4th: Ron: I think Rons content episode one was good...but circumstantial due to him finding the advantage. HOWEVER...episode 4 was good for him! Despite not attending tribal he got really good content. I think he is playing Joe like a fiddle...AND that is good for him.

5th: Kelley: People can say what they want about Kelley... it's not as negative as it could be. HOWEVER...I do agree it hurts her chances that she is the number one player right now. Despite being a returnee...usually, the winner isn't so in your face. Also, I truly don't think a returning player is winning.

6th: Julie: She has gotten okay content...thought I really doubt she will win. Could she make FTC? Definitely. But she has gotten ZERO game content I believe. I really think its more about the experience she is on. Like whats, the first days were like in the elements, the nerves during the tribe swap. She is a character...just not a gamer. Probably the journey edit. But who knows...this season is clearly going to end uniquely. Maybe the journey edit is the one that will win in the end.

7th: Aubry: I LOVE Aubry. HOWEVER...I really find it hard to believe that she is winning after episode 2 for her. IT WAS TERRIBLE FOR HER. She legit seemed so ingenuine and I think that hurts her chances. Despite having a good ep 3,4 I still see her as being more of an underdog that falls short. HOWEVER...her edit does warrant her more of a win than players who are completely invisible.

8th: Wardog: Okay this might be low for Wardog...but he seems too gamey. This season seems to be more of an emotional rollarcoaster...and I think the winner will have episodes of emotion also. All we have seen from Wardog is strategy really. ALSO...he has sided with Kelley/Lauren multiple times...and despite that, we have seen no "alliance" seen between the THREE of them. Just Kelley/Lauren. Thus I find it hard to believe that he does better than either of them. Thus I don't think Wardog will make it into the endgame. I see perjury game bot.

9th: Gavin: I think Gavin had a good premiere episode but UTR, INV, UTR for episodes 2,3,4...nope you are out of the running. I get it that he didn't attend tribal...but we would have at least seen an additional alliance building comment or something about the swap from the winner. So I doubt he wins. Though I feel he will play a role down the road.

10th: David: I thought David had good episodes 2,3...HOWEVER I really think this episode was the nail in his coffin. Like why would he NOT target Kelley? At this point the edit almost is showing him as someone who is too wishy washy. Thus despite the content he has recieved...its literally ALL been Kelley centric. Thus I see her getting him out first.

11th: Wendy: Too OTT. At first it was negative. But now it is becomming negative. Like her keeping people from eating...thats just cruel. She seems like a prejury personality....but I don't see her being anything but the CP4 prejury queen.

12th: Joe: God this episode was TERRIBLE for him. Also...Jeff is obsessed with Joe. So why would he have two UTR's in a row.. (2,3) So I really don't think Joe will go far. I also think he was so stupid in thinking Ron would flip with him. Honestly stupid lol

13th: Aurora: Her edit is legit Joe centric. Its kinda sad...I follow her on instagram. She seems like a badass. But all we see is her pretending to be Joes dog in this last episdoe...THATS BAD FOR HER.

14th: Julia: ZERO confessionals. Like wtf? I seriously feel bad for her. Imagine being on survivor is your dream..but when you get on this happens....okay. Also its soo annoying. A female needs to portray an archetype...whereas all a man needs is a penis to have good content. Like what is Ricks archetype????? He's not even interesting. Literally pisses me off. Even Mike White last season. Literally the most boring person I have ever watched on the tv....wtf what archetype does he portray?????? Its so annoying

EOE:

1st: Rick: EWW...But edit way too good. He could be the winner
2nd: Chris: Really good personal story this last episode
3rd: Keith and Reem: Neither is getting back in....but they will repesent EOE

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