6. Gavin Whitson- It’s final six, Rick has an idol, Lauren has an idol, and the Extinction Island returnee is back. It seems like Julie and Rick are a pair, Victoria and Gavin are a pair, and Lauren is somewhere in the middle, possibly having a relationship with Julie, but also working with Gavin and Victoria. I think the Extinction Island returnee will go on to win immunity. Rick is going to be the primary target, but he will play his idol, which means whoever Rick votes for will probably be the one who goes home. Victoria knows damn well she doesn’t want it to be her, and it will be hard to separate Julie and Lauren, so I can see Victoria jump ship on her ally Gavin. It would be poetic justice to see Gavin, who has flipped on Eric AND Ron, to have karma come right back around with his ally voting HIM out. Victoria has also backstabbed, but not the same way Gavin has. Gavin took out his number one ally, Eric. Victoria was aligned with Eric, but not the way Gavin was. I think Gavin’s story arc has set him up to be a contender if he can get to final three, but Gavin is clearly one of the biggest threats from a physical and social standpoint, and I think Victoria would be willing to let him go if it just meant keeping herself safe. If Rick hadn’t had an idol, it would be a lot more clear cut, but I think Gavin is getting the boot here.
5. Rick Devens- Rick is threat number one. He’s also the most heavily edited character this season. Which is exactly why I don’t think Rick will win. With the Extinction Island returnee coming in, I could see Rick getting beat in immunity challenges. Rick has had to compete with Julie, Lauren, Victoria, and Gavin, who are good, but not great in challenges. If Chris, Eric, Joe, or even Aubry come back, Rick is going to get a run for his money, and if he doesn’t win immunity, he HAS to find an idol. I just think luck will run out at some point, especially with Lauren having an idol too and maybe making the first move. Assuming Rick doesn’t win immunity at final 6 and uses his idol in final 6 as well, this would be the first time Rick would be vulnerable. This is the time to get Rick out. If Rick makes it to the finale, he wins. If he’s vulnerable, you TAKE HIM OUT. Rick is going to get fifth place, because letting him get to 4 will give him a shot at making fire, and trying to get him out at 6 won’t work because of his idol. It has to be final 5 or bust.
4. Julie Rosenberg- As for who will lose fire-making, I think Julie ends up here by process of elimination. I think the Edge of Extinction winner will be able to win this final immunity, and will probably take Victoria, seeing as she’s the quietest player there. Lauren and Julie will face off, and Lauren will win fire making. It sucks for Julie, whose whole story has been about overcoming these obstacles in camp life. I think Julie could still shock everyone and win fire, but it seems like Julie’s edit has just been all over the place that even if she makes final three, she’ll only get a vote from Ron. She has just been so wishy washy this entire time, and I believe she’s going to go out in this challenge, just short of the end. If Rick Devens somehow wins immunity at final five, I could even see Julie getting cut earlier than this, but I’ll keep her here for now.
3. Extinction Island Returnee- I put this here because it all depends on WHO returns from Extinction, but I believe they’ll be able to win a few immunities, and perhaps a fire making challenge to get themselves to the final three. The thing is, I really can’t see anyone getting enough votes in the end to win. Even if someone like Chris or Aubry (or Reem) has this huge story of coming from the pre-merge and fighting their way back, they still can’t hold an argument against someone who has been playing the game every day since day one. Yeah, it’s impressive that they’ve been able to survive on this low-resource, gloomy island, but they haven’t had to put up with all the strategy and competition that the five people on the island have had to do. I think they could still get a few votes from those who were ON extinction with them, but I do think they have a much harder case to make. They’re going to have to rely on social gameplay and the relationships they made on Extinction Island. This is why the whole season was flawed from the start…someone like Reem could survive so long and win her way back into the game, but how does someone like that stand any chance of deserving a million dollars over someone who had to sit at tribal council every week and vote, find idols, win immunities, etc? It just isn’t close in comparison, which is why this season’s twist is interesting, but won’t have much effect in terms of who wins this season. Third place seems right. Give them credit for coming back and making it there, but maybe not credit in the form of a million dollars.
2. Lauren O’Connell- Lauren, next to Rick, has the best edit left in terms of screen time, but has Lauren made any big moves? Sure she has an idol in her pocket, but by the time she uses it, I don’t think it’s going to make a huge effect in the game, as she won’t really be the target. Idol plays are much more impressive when there are lots of people left in the game (think Wentworth in Cambodia or Russell Hantz on his first two seasons). I just think people saw Lauren as Kelley’s right hand man, and since Kelley left, she’s had to play on her own, but has also not been targeted, simply because I don’t think anyone’s worried about her. I think Lauren is a good player, but she hasn’t really controlled any of the votes this season. Even this past Aurora vote, yeah Lauren wanted Julie to stay, but Victoria and Gavin ultimately joined in on that plan too, so I don’t think Lauren can totally take credit for that move either. The biggest downfall to Lauren’s game, even if she has a great final few tribal councils, is the fact that a lot of the jurors just don’t know Lauren too well. Lauren was on a tribe with Kelley, David, Wardog, and Rick for the first half of the game, so people like Chris and Reem felt betrayed by her for voting them out, while people like Aubry, Joe, Eric, and Julia didn’t even really get much time to bond with her. The only people who truly have Lauren’s back is Wentworth and Wardog. Even David didn’t really get to bond with Lauren. I just think other people (*cough* Victoria *cough*) have much better bonds with the jury, even after voting them out. Lauren just hasn’t made any moves beyond finding an idol (which she could still flub, we don’t know), and hasn’t really made many connections with many jurors. I see Lauren as a runner-up. I think she honestly has the easiest path to final three, but can she win once she’s there? I don’t think so.
1. Victoria Baamonde- I’ve been saying for months now that Victoria is going to win Survivor, and I stand by that. Here’s the thing…even when Victoria had NOTHING to do with the episode strategically, they found a way to give her something to say. Remember episode one? Victoria is the one who said how much of a dream Survivor was, and how she got a buff for Christmas when she was a little girl. Why include that in the edit if her tribe was going to dominate so early on? It’s because CBS wanted us to get to know Victoria and give us subtle hints to keep an eye on her throughout. Sure, she may not get very emotional content, but that’s because I just don’t think Victoria is a very emotional person. She’s just playing a good game, and isn’t letting emotions get in her way the way Julie, Lauren, or even Rick are. Victoria hasn’t been a flashy player, but she was the person who dictated a lot of the early votes, especially Aubry’s boot. She was also part of getting Joe, Eric, Julia, Wentworth, David, and Wardog out. The ONLY person she didn’t vote out was Ron, but she still spearheaded his elimination. I think Victoria has really done a good job gaining people’s trust, but not to the point where it feels like a betrayal. I think people will feel betrayed by Gavin or by Lauren. But I don’t think anyone feels betrayal from Victoria, but rather a “hey, I respect what you did.” This is why I think Victoria stands a chance. Victoria is also a valedictorian. She’s incredibly smart. Even if she hasn’t made the biggest moves of the season, she’ll be able to sell her case better than anyone. Even if she’s up against Rick, all she has to say is “Rick got voted out once. I never got voted out, and I voted for the person who went home all but ONCE.” That’s all she needs to win. Was she dragged to the end? No. She took a risk with Aubry. If Aubry played her idol, Wendy would’ve gone home, and Aubry may have targeted Victoria, ending her Survivor journey way earlier. Victoria took risks early on. She was caught by Joe, who was eavesdropping. But Victoria always got the last laugh. She grew as a player, always found her way into the right side of the vote. I worry that the jury might not see her as a threat, but that’s why Survivor has a final tribal council. Victoria has the ability to defend herself in front of the jury, and if anyone is going to be able to talk her way to a win, it’s Victoria. It also doesn’t hurt that she’s played with a majority of the jury closely, and has a legitimate bond with Aubry, Eric, Julia, Ron, and Aurora. Even someone like David can probably acknowledge her hard work. She’s been one of my favorite players this season. She hasn’t needed idols, or immunity wins, or Extinction Island. She’s been able to use her relationships and her snake-in-the-grass like strategy to sneak into this position, and I really think she can win this whole thing.
My favorite from the start was Aubry, but Victoria has almost become a new Aubry, using her unthreatening demeanor lead her path to make alliances and then cut the big dogs when she needs to. She got out Aubry, and since then, she’s been on the right side of each vote, and I think it really shows just how much control and power Vic has had from the start. As for the rest, I think Gavin and Rick just won’t make it to the end because they are threats, and luck has to run out at some time. Julie could be sitting in the end, but again, I just don’t see either her or Lauren having enough jury support to win. If the jury is bitter and want to vote for the Extinction Island returnee, they may, but I think it’s going to be hard for anyone to come back from Extinction and have any chance of making an argument better than Victoria, Lauren, Rick, Gavin, or even Julie. Sure, Rick came back, but he also played an amazing game since the merge, and hasn’t sat around as long as someone like Reem or Chris has. It’ll be interesting to see who returns, who sits in the final three, and who wins. But I truly think, because of all the hype Rick has been getting lately, it won’t be him. I think we’re in for a surprise winner, someone who may not have been the flashiest, but who outsmarted the rest to make her way to the end and get the votes needed to win.
Let’s jump right in, shall we?
1. Victoria —
2. Lauren —
3. Edge of Extinction Returnee (n/a)
4. Julie —
5. Rick —
6. Gavin (-3)
Biggest Rise: n/a
Biggest Drop: Gavin (-3)