Definitely qualifying:
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan
🇲🇹 Malta
🇷🇺 Russia
🇸🇪 Sweden
🇨🇭 Switzerland
🇳🇱 The Netherlands
🇷🇺 Russia, 🇸🇪 Sweden, and 🇳🇱 The Netherlands are self-explanatory. Additionally, the rehearsals make me confident that the rest are qualifying. 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan has gotten rave reviews, and it's been reflected in the odds. 🇨🇭 Switzerland seemed well-received, and the choreography looks solid. And visually, 🇲🇹 Malta looks absolutely incredible. There is no way that Malta isn't qualifying, even if Michela delivers a subpar vocal (which I don't think she will). As a matter of fact, I could see Malta challenging top five, and I think it has the most potential to do well of this years "Fuego's". Switzerland and Malta are the most likely shock non-qualifiers from this group, but I have faith in both.
Of these four, I feel the least confident in Latvia and Ireland. I think 🇱🇻 Latvia is lost in the running order, and their song is probably too low-key to advance, and I think 🇮🇪 Ireland will struggle with their running order. I quite enjoy Ireland's LED, but I just don't see qualification panning out for them. I've seen the staging be described as lost, and I haven't seen any hype for it apart from W*lliam and Deban who hype everything. It could be a repeat of 2018 but I just don't get those vibes from 22.
If 🇱🇹 Lithuania qualifies it will be thanks to a strong diaspora vote, but I think the staging seems too simple for them to make it out of this semi-final. And finally, I actually think 🇭🇷 Croatia has a shot at qualifying (given that Jacques qualified in 2017), but I personally don't hope to see Croatia in the final so I'm just placing them in this category and hoping for the best.
Borderline qualifiers (pick 4):
🇦🇱 Albania
🇦🇲 Armenia
🇦🇹 Austria
🇩🇰 Denmark
🇲🇩 Moldova
🇲🇰 North Macedonia
🇳🇴 Norway
🇷🇴 Romania
I would really like to see 🇦🇲 Armenia in the Final, but I'm getting strong 11th place vibes from it. Serbia 2017 and Azerbaijan 2018 both finished 11th after opening their semi-finals, and I could see this being the same. Judging by the reactions from the press I barely see anyone talking about Armenia. It feels a bit forgotten despite still being considered a potential qualifier, which makes me think this could be the shock non-qualifier of the night. I hope I'm wrong but I do predict that Armenia just barely misses out on the final, and that's my bold prediction of the semi.
For the record, I don't think 🇲🇩 Moldova is going to qualify. If Moldova qualifies it's solely because of the sand lady. Don't get me wrong, Moldova have definitely done themselves a favour since this song was dead on arrival, and at least now it has people talking. I still don't think the song itself is strong enough to qualify despite clever staging, but I do consider Moldova still in the running. I'm not completely ruling it out.
Personally, I think that 🇩🇰 Denmark, 🇳🇴 Norway, and 🇷🇴 Romania are qualifying from this group. I detest the Danish song but I recognize that a lot of people are going to like it. There's definitely a market for that kind of song, and I think it'll benefit from that. 🇳🇴 Norway could be another potential shock non-qualifier like Armenia, but I am giving Norway the edge because I thought KEiiNO sounded really strong in today's rehearsal clips, and that was always the one thing in question. Good vocals give me confidence that Norway will advance. Finally, I think 🇷🇴 Romania is a visual feast (in the words of William Lee Adams), and I think it's extremely underrated. Romania is bringing a show and I think they're qualifying.
I love 🇦🇹 Austria and I am so happy that Paenda's rehearsal has been well-received, but I still think it's an uphill battle for Austria. I would put this song through to the final in a heartbeat, but I think it'll end up being understated. I'm expecting a good jury vote but I don't think the televote will respond, which will be their downfall.
The last qualifier in my opinion is between 🇦🇱 Albania and 🇲🇰 North Macedonia. One of these Balkan nations is definitely making the final. Before today I would have predicted Albania, but now I'm leaning toward North Macedonia. Both women sound fantastic so vocals aren't the issue. Rather it's the staging, and Albania seemed to have no staging. It seems like North Macedonia upstaged them (pun intended) in that regard, and I think Macedonia is definitely a contender now, but still borderline.
FINAL QUALIFIER PREDICTION:
AZERBAIJAN
DENMARK
MALTA
NORTH MACEDONIA
NORWAY
SWITZERLAND
SWEDEN
ROMANIA
RUSSIA
THE NETHERLANDS
Austria and Armenia still have a good chance, and I can see them replacing any of Denmark/Norway/Romania.
Albania is also a contender, likely in place of North Macedonia, but also any of the above three potentially.
I really see Norway struggling honestly. Besides me just hating the song, this basic europop genre has led to recent fanwanks flopping (Verona, Monsters) and I could see it doing something similar.
Praying Albania pulls it out, but if it's between Albania and Macedonia, I'd almost rather Macedonia qualify since they've actually brought a decent entry for once.
Don't remind me of Ireland's imminent flop, I'm not ready.
Agree with where you have the countries listed though! And in regards to your predictions, I'd probably put Armenia in over Norway but I really don't know
