🇨🇾 Cyprus and 🇬🇷 Greece are not a surprise. They were always qualifying, and they still are.
I'm always going to be nervous regarding 🇮🇸 Iceland but I think they've done enough to qualify. I especially love the addition of pyro to their performance. As divisive as the song is, I just can't see Iceland being left behind in the semis.
🇦🇺 Australia appear to have a really cool staging concept, and vocally Kate is always there. Despite initial doubt from the fandom, I always thought Australia would advance, and I think their rehearsal solidifies qualification.
I'm still not a fan of 🇨🇿 Czech Republic's song but I've always thought it would qualify. I think the performance looks really fun and colorful, and it just feels like something that would appeal to a lot of people. I also think juries are going to respond especially well to Czech. I think they're a lock.
Definitely not qualifying:
🇫🇮 Finland
🇬🇪 Georgia
🇲🇪 Montenegro
🇲🇪 Montenegro is not a surprise. It's dated, looks a mess, and has next to no mainstream appeal. They're competing for last place in the semi-final as far as I'm concerned. 🇫🇮 Finland feels messy to me, and I don't think they've done enough to elevate. At the end of the day it's a generic EDM song. It's not any better than Poland 2018, so I think they're gone.
🇬🇪 Georgia I'm the most uncertain about, but I'm still willing to put them in this group. I actually don't mind the Georgian song and their performance looks GOOD, but I don't want the LED screen to bias my judgment. I don't think enough people are going to respond to Georgia's entry, hence why I foresee a non-qualification.
Borderline qualifiers (pick 5):
🇧🇾 Belarus
🇧🇪 Belgium
🇪🇪 Estonia
🇭🇺 Hungary
🇵🇱 Poland
🇵🇹 Portugal
🇸🇲 San Marino
🇷🇸 Serbia
🇸🇮 Slovenia
Right off the bat, I think that 🇸🇮 Slovenia is going to qualify. I think their performance looks promising. Zala and Gasper create a mood and I really do think they're going to resonate with people. There's an off chance that this completely goes over people's heads hence why I only have them listed as borderline, but I think Slovenia is safe.
I'm also willing to predict that 🇭🇺 Hungary and 🇷🇸 Serbia are going to qualify. They both provide ethnic realness that feels a lot more palatable than 🇵🇱 Poland's ethnic sounding song. For the record, I do think Hungary will perform better in the televote while Serbia performs better with the juries, but I see them both squeezing through. I have them both as borderline because I do think they run the risk of canceling each other out, likely appealing to the same audience. Their LEDs are also quite similar, which could hurt one or both.
I think based on the reaction to their first rehearsal, 🇧🇪 Belgium might be in trouble. They've recovered from dodgy rehearsals before but I don't think Wake Up is strong enough to qualify on its own merits. I do think Belgium will struggle. I also unfortunately think that 🇵🇹 Portugal is going to struggle. I would put Portugal through in a heartbeat, but I'm afraid that it won't connect with viewers or juries. The song has been a massive miss with TV panelists and online juries, and I fear that's reflective of how the broader European audience will also respond.
🇪🇪 Estonia is hard to predict because I can't tell whether people will respond to it. They're performing after a run of OTT performances (Georgia-Australia-Iceland), which will either be in Estonia's favor or to their detriment. The same almost applies to 🇧🇾 Belarus. I think that Like It has a lot of mainstream appeal, but I did think their rehearsal was messy. The LED didn't suit the song in my opinion, and the props took up too much room on stage.
Finally, 🇸🇲 San Marino. Their rehearsal footage looked disappointing but photos of Serhat's performance seemed much more promising. I do think San Marino has a chance, but it's tough for me to confidently put a country through that has no neighbor/friendly voting, and a long history of non-qualification.
FINAL QUALIFIER PREDICTION:
AUSTRALIA
CYPRUS
CZECH REPUBLIC
ESTONIA
GREECE
HUNGARY
ICELAND
SAN MARINO
SERBIA
SLOVENIA
.......... but Poland and Portugal to qualify please instead of Estonia/San Marino :)
I don’t think Estonia is qualifying, especially considering how much the juries hated him at Eesti Laul. I’m not sold on San Marino either, because I don’t see the juries voting for him. People are always quick to bring up that Serhat got 12th in 2016, but there was such a huge gap in points between 10th and 12th that I don’t this year will be any different. However, like you said, songs like Portugal and Poland haven’t been well received, so it’s also hard to predict whether they’ll have enough support to go through. Definitely a much harder semi to predict than we previously though :)) I just need Slovenia and Greece to qualify and I’ll be content
