Since Semi Final 2 of Eurovision is tomorrow, I have decided to make a prediction on what I think will happen tomorrow! This semi is much more straightforward on the surface than semi 1. A lot of big-name performers and popular songs that are guaranteed songs, mixed in with a lot of borderline qualifiers that are going to fight for the last 3/4 spots, so it'll be interesting to see where they go to! Anyways, here's what I think -
1. Armenia
Walking Out by Srbuk
Chance of qualifying - 50%
I have a really weird feeling that this is going to be REALLY close to qualifying, and it's only going to miss out because Azerbaijan will give them 0 points. It's a good opener though, but the staging is empty, and I don't know if anyone will really be inclined to vote for it. Definitely a borderline though.
2. Ireland
22 by Sarah McTernan
Chance of qualifying - 25%
As much as I'd like to see this qualifying, I just don't see it happening. The staging has elevated it a lot and the song is catchy and fun, but Sarah sadly got stuck in the harder semi which is ultimately what screwed her over. If this could squeeze through though I'd be VERY happy.
3. Moldova
Stay by Anna Odobescu
Chance of qualifying - 25%
Well, Moldova got people talking about them, but that's about it. While her staging is very good, the song is still extremely dated, and I don't see people voting for the sand art over the iconic performances that are to come (that actually have good songs attached to them).
4. Switzerland
She Got Me by Luca Hänni
Chance of qualifying - 90%
This song has definitely lost a lot of its steam since its initial release, but I still think people are really going to like this on first listen. The juries should rank this decently too since it's a modern pop track with nice vocals. However, I wouldn't be overly shocked if it missed out, but think it should have no problems qualifying.
5. Latvia
That Night by Carousel
Chance of qualifying - 5%
This song has really been growing on me a lot recently, but it's just not high impact enough to compete in this semi. It's a shame considering it's a beautiful song, but it'll just be forgotten.
6. Romania
On a Sunday by Ester Peony
Chance of qualifying - 65%
Another borderline, that I'm giving an edge to qualify. The juries really seemed to appreciate this in Selectia Nationala, and the song has only been elevated since then. A haunting and mesmerizing performance, that I think will be enough to help Romania squeak through (plus the added help from Moldova).
7. Denmark
Love Is Forever by Leonora
Chance of qualifying - 65%
I think I actually strongly dislike this song now after once loving it l0l. Anyways, Denmark got a great draw and luckily has its two best friends also voting in this semi. A cute and bubbly performance that'll stand out amongst all of the darker entries in the semi. I think this will qualify, although, I wouldn't be surprised if it's too much for people and they decide to not vote for it.
8. Sweden
Too Late For Love by John Lundvik
Chance of qualifying - 100%
No question and quite self-explanitory. Great vocals, staging, and everything. Will sail through at the top of the pack.
9. Austria
Limits by PÆNDA
Chance of qualifying - 50%
I'm torn on this one, because I feel like the jury is going to appreciate it, but I really don't think the public is going to get behind it. I don't have it qualifying for now and I fear it could get forgotten, but I would be pleased if this was able to pass.
10. Croatia
The Dream by Roko
Chance of qualifying - 50%
I'm really scared this may be able to squeak through. The song is still absolutely dire, but it's enough out there that the public may get behind it, and Roko sings flawlessly which will help him with the juries. I still don't think the song is strong enough to make it though (at least I hope not).
11. Malta
Chameleon by Michela
Chance of qualifying - 100%
CHAME-CHAMELEON!! A BOP and the only real female banger of the semi. Really stands out, and I can see a lot of people getting behind this. Should be fine with qualifying.
12. Lithuania
Run With the Lions by Jurij Velenko
Chance of qualifying - 45%
Lithuania has qualified with far worse songs, but this one just isn't original enough to stand out and receive votes. Even if the juries appreciate this, I don't think it'll be enough for Lithuania to make it out of the semi.
13. Russia
Scream by Sergey Lazarev
Chance of qualifying - 100%
If this was any other country this song literally wouldn't qualify. But since it's Sergey and Russia it's going to sail through, and be at the top of the results.
14. Albania
Ktheju tökes by Jonida Maliqi
Chance of qualifying - 50%
I'm really worried for this song. Jonida sings flawlessly, and it's really going to stand out being the only song entirely in a native language, but I worry her staging isn't going to be enough to save this fantastic song. Is definitely going to be on the cusp, and I just hope she ends up on the right side.
15. Norway
Spirit In the Sky by KEiiNO
Chance of qualifying - 50%
I don't know if it's just because I hate the song that makes me think this could massively flop, but I really think it could. I can really see juries bringing this down a lot, and then not receiving as much televote support as people think it will. If there's a shock non-qualifier, I'm putting my money on it being Norway. However, I have them squeaking through because they're bound to get a lot of points from Sweden and Denmark.
16. Netherlands
Arcade by Duncan Laurence
Chance of qualifying - 100%
Self-explanatory. Beautiful, captivating, and at the end of the semi are all great conditions to win this semi.
17. North Macedonia
Proud by Tamara Todevska
Chance of qualifying - 50%
Hm. I still don't understand why this was placed directly after another ballad, which I think really hurts it. However, this song has a universal message, and Tamara sings flawlessly. I really hope she'll be able to squeak through and avenge by loves Jana Burčeska and Eye Cue.
18. Azerbaijan
Truth by Chingiz
Chance of qualifying - 100%
Great closer, memorable staging and a good song. Should qualify with no problems.
-PREDICTIONS-
1. Netherlands
2. Sweden
3. Russia
4. Malta
5. Azerbaijan
6. Switzerland
7. Romania
8. Denmark
9. North Macedonia
10. Norway
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11. Armenia
12. Albania
13. Austria
14. Croatia
15. Lithuania
16. Moldova
17. Ireland
18. Latvia
**I have my 7th-15th as borderlines and ones that could go either way**
PYN/Comment to be tagged
Also please feel free to leave your thoughts/opinions down below :)
