Since Semi Final 1 of Eurovision is tomorrow, I have decided to make a prediction on what I think will happen tomorrow! This semi is really interesting to me because there's not a lot of stand out songs. Instead, a lot of these songs seem to be typical borderline qualifiers, yet as this semi is wide open, a large chunk of them will be able to qualify. I still think it'll be really close though, and I'm interested to see what happens. Again, this is only my prediction
1. Cyprus
Replay by Cyprus
Chance of qualifying - 100%
A solid opener that is going to attract a lot of televotes. One of the only really strong and memorable songs in the semi which easily stands out, and should allow this to easily qualify.
2. Montenegro
Heaven by D mol
Chance of qualifying - 5%
I would give this 0%, but I feel like that's quite harsh lol However, there is absolutely no way this qualifies. From what I heard the staging is a mess, the song is absolutely dated, and it has nothing going for it. Should get last place, unless Serbia hypes it up.
3. Finland
Look Away by Darude feat. Sebastian Rejman
Chance of qualifying - 25%
Meh. I don't really see this appealing to either the juries or the televoters. Sebastian's vocals aren't good enough to garner votes, and the staging just seems very separate and disconnected from the audience. Don't see this performing too well either.
4. Poland
Fire of Love (Pali Się) by Tulia
Chance of qualifying - 50%
This is an entry I'm torn on, because you can never truly predict how many of the Polish diaspora is going to appear out of nowhere and mass vote for their country. I do think this stands a chance at qualifying, because the song is memorable, and I could see the juries voting for something different like this. However, in the grand scheme of everything, I'm not sure if it stands out enough to qualify.
5. Slovenia
Sebi by Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl
Chance of qualifying - 75%
I swear if this doesn't qualify I may have a breakdown. This is something I'll probably repeat, but I think this stands a chance not because it necessarily stands out, but because it should be better received than many of the other entries in this semi. I can see the juries appreciating this, and while the televote may be a problem, I'm hoping the intimacy and beautiful staging will be able to win voters over
6. Czech Republic
Friend of a Friend by Lake Malawi
Chance of qualifying - 95%
I really don't see a scenario where this doesn't qualify. The juries and televote are both going to absolutely love this, especially since I heard Albert is going to perform better vocally for the jury, and then more charismatic for the live show. I think this has a great chance at being in the top of the semi, and this song deserves it.
7. Hungary
Az én apám by Joci Pápai
Chance of qualifying - 75%
Similarly to Slovenia, I don't think this will qualify because it's some fantastic song, but because it's better than other songs we're being offered in the semi. The staging really elevates this as well, which I think will help it receive enough votes to get through.
8. Belarus
Like It by Zena
Chance of qualifying - 50%
Another one I'm torn on. While it's something fresh and contemporary, I think the public and jury will both gravitate towards Cyprus over this, which is really going to hurt Belarus. However, I still could see this going through, as Zena is great live and her performance is pretty good.
9. Serbia
Kruna by Nevena Božović
Chance of qualifying - 85%
A very solid Balkan ballad which always are able to sneak into the final. Nevena sings flawlessly, and the performance is absolutely beautiful. Add that to the fact that this is arguably the strongest ex-Yugoslav in the semi, and you have a qualifier.
10. Belgium
Wake Up by Eliot
Chance of qualifying - 45%
Meh, again. I really don't see anyone voting for this one. Juries may be able to save it, but the song and performance are just monotonous and boring, that I really don't think this stands much of a chance, especially with what's to come in the second half.
11. Georgia
Keep On Going by Oto Nemsadze
Chance of qualifying - 35%
While the stage show has really elevated this, I still don't see many people gravitating towards this. As this has a very strong nationalistic sentiment, and there's an obvious lack of ex-Soviet's in this semi, I don't think anyone will connect to this and will cause it to suffer as a result.
12. Australia
Zero Gravity by Kate Miller-Heidke
Chance of qualifying - 100%
Self-explanatory. Beautiful staging, fantastic vocals, memorable performance. Unlike anything else in the contest, should be able to sail through.
13. Iceland
Hatrið mun sigra by Hatari
Chance of qualifying - 100%
Self-explanatory again. Memorable performance that is extremely divisive, which only works in Iceland's advantage. While I don't think the juries will love it, the public definitely will, and will help this qualify.
14. Estonia
Storm by Victor Crone
Chance of qualifying - 40%
I'm convinced this isn't qualifying. There's a reason Victor got TWO points from the juries in Eesti Laul, and that's because this is an unoriginal song with subpar vocals that relies on staging to appear better than it actually is. While it *could* qualify, I really don't think it will.
15. Portugal
Telemóvies by Conan Osiris
Chance of qualifying - 50%
A few weeks ago I thought this was certain, but now I'm not as sure. The staging hasn't done any favors to this song, and I'm not really sure if many people are going to connect with this song and performance. While I think this will likely be able to squeak by, I wouldn't be surprised at all if this flops.
16. Greece
Better Love by Katerine Duska
Chance of qualifying - 100%
Beautiful, elegant, classy. Vocals are superb, staging is iconic and memorable, and the song is catchy. Juries and the public are going to love this. I see this winning the semi.
17. San Marino
Say Na Na Na by Serhat
Chance of qualifying - 35%
I'm sorry, but all of you saying this is qualifying are wrong. Yes, Serhat got 12th in 2016, but he had more than HALF the votes of the act that got 10th. This is a better song, but I don't see the juries ranking this high, and I don't see people voting for this dance track when they have better ones in the semis. However, if this were to qualify, I wouldn't be entirely mad.
-PREDICTIONS-
1. Greece
2. Australia
3. Cyprus
4. Iceland
5. Czech Republic
6. Serbia
7. Hungary
8. Slovenia
9. Portugal
10. Poland
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11. Belarus
12. Belgium
13. Estonia
14. San Marino
15. Georgia
16. Finland
17. Montenegro
**I have my 7th-13th as borderlines and ones that could go either way**
PYN/Comment to be tagged
Also please feel free to leave your thoughts/opinions down below :)
Tomorrow I will be posting my reactions after the first semi final of Eurovision!
Comments
I wrote out my top 17 prediction (from most to least likely) and it's almost identical to your list. I'd be extremely pleased with those ten qualifiers.
Tonight's reaction to the jury show makes me think that Portugal is back in with a shot which makes me happy. I'm also feeling slightly more confidence in Belarus though I'd rather Poland/Portugal qualify.
I think Portugal is back in it too, but I'm still worried about how the public is going to react to it. Same with Slovenia, which I'm really worried the public won't vote for it. Semi 1 really is going to be interesting tonight, and I honestly think I'm more excited for the songs and results for tonight rather than the overhyped semi 2
Tonight's reaction to the jury show makes me think that Portugal is back in with a shot which makes me happy. I'm also feeling slightly more confidence in Belarus though I'd rather Poland/Portugal qualify.