I’m gonna do these every week so PYN if you want a tag!
Well I for one enjoyed this episode a lot more than the previous two. A man went home (the fan favorite nonetheless, lol!) and Michele got the strategic content for it. I do have to question why these people want to work with Rob or Parvati so bad, it really makes no sense to me, but that’s a different conversation entirely. Let’s get into the edits because some people really took a nosedive this episode.
Edge of Extinction:
20th – Danni – I maintain that of those on edge currently, she has the worst chance at returning. She got one confessional that was almost obligatory given that she just got there and then that was it. She’s been portrayed as erratic at best and given the strength of the edits of the other two women at edge, it looks bad for Danni.
19th – Ethan – Given the hype for Ethan that they had preseason and on social media from the fans, Ethan had a pretty disappointing edit. Thus far he has five confessionals and lacked any real tone or content whatsoever. Not to be cruel, but his storyline is cancer, not game. I would bet a lot that he doesn’t return. Nothing about what we’ve seen gives that vibe.
18th – Amber – She continues to get content, another solid showing in Episode 3, but I must wonder if that’s solely because she’s Rob’s wife and refused to do the show unless she had a relatively large presence. She feels like she’s narrating on Edge more than anything at this point. I don’t foresee her returning to the game.
17th – Natalie – Things just keep getting better and better for her. She’s got every power thus far on Edge and sold them to three different people. She’s got more fire tokens than everyone there combined. Given the confessional from Nick earlier this season about the winner being the one who used their tokens the right way, this must look good for Natalie. Right now, she’s certainly the favorite to return to the game.
IN GAME:
16th – Nick - There will be disagreements on whether Nick got a confessional this episode even though I adamantly believe it doesn’t count. From my perspective, Nick’s confessional line is 1-0-0. That’s terrible. In a season of all winners, if you start off this way, the odds are you aren’t the winner. We’ve seen nothing despite his tribe voting someone out once. Others around him continue to get fun content while he simply exists.
15th – Wendell – Nick’s description sums up how I feel about Wendell as well. I understand that he got a somewhat slow start in Ghost Island, but in this caliber of a season, his edit does not hold up. We will be approaching a swap and having no content before that likely spells doom for his game. There’s always chances to turn it around, but Wendell is running out of time.
14th – Rob – Rob just feels defeated somehow. The way he acts, the way he talks…I don’t know if Amber getting out really got to him or he’s just gotten too old for the game. That aside, he’s consistently called “The Godfather” and despite being labeled someone people want to work with, we see over and over how he’s worn out and not even the same puzzle solver he used to be. Not great for Rob.
13th – Parvati – Episode one aside, this has not been great for her. She’s now the focus of Adam’s wrath and already a huge target. There’s no way anyone lets her get to the end no matter how many times they prolong her departure. The writing is on the wall for Parvati. She’s going to need some help and fast if she even makes a deep run into this game.
12th – Adam – He’s got so many confessionals but was left out of the Ethan vote entirely. No one even trusted him to tell him that they weren’t voting for Parvati. He’s hyper-fixated on taking down Parvati so much that I feel like it’s starting to spell his own demise. Parvati feels better connected with strong bonds outside of her alliance. While she won’t win, Adam likely won’t either.
11th – Sandra – She’s unfortunately lumped into the same category of people who stand no chance at winning because no one would take them to the end. Sandra sits out of challenges so there’s no threat of her making an immunity run at this. I feel like she has Yul on her side, but I don’t know if that will be enough. She DID get the positivity out of the edit from Tyson targeting her however…
10th – Tyson – Dropping Tyson from first to tenth? Really? Was the episode that bad for him? I think it was. Last week we were shown Sandra being chaotic spreading misinformation, but this week we were led to believe that Sandra had enough people to get Tyson out for targeting her. Yul went right to Sandra with that information, and we know Yul has assembled an alliance against poker players. This doesn’t look as good for Tyson as it did the previous two weeks.
9th – Kim – Here I thought Kim was getting an underdog storyline where her and Tyson would be able to turn things around only for Kim to go essentially invisible last night. What an unfortunate turnaround for Kim from S24 to S40. I’m hoping I’m wrong and we see her get back on top once a swap hits, but it’s feeling more and more unlikely.
8th – Jeremy – I’ve dropped Jeremy a bit because he’s been shown as a duo with Michele, but she got the strategic credit of the Ethan vote instead of him. I think he will make it decently far in the game, but this feels like more of a SJDS showing instead of a Cambodia showing. I think he’ll finish in relatively similar positions.
7th – Ben – His chances are certainly rising. I think it’s shocking that he’s been able to integrate himself within the tribe. There’s a lot of conflicting messaging though. The audience sees his shortcomings when it comes to strategy, but we’re also shown how he’s grown from the last time he played in trying to make better social connections. He’s certainly more tolerable this time around and think if we continue to see his game evolve, he could be a real contender.
6th – Denise – She hasn’t had entirely too much screen time; however, we were shown one important thing about Denise this week: despite her connection with Adam, she was let in on the Ethan vote while Adam was left in the dark. This shows how strong her bonds are with people that they still trust her despite her relationship with Adam. It will be interesting to see how this plays out with Adam next week and how he feels about what she did.
5th – Michele – That’s the episode I needed from her. Fantastic for her chances in this game. Up until now Michele has been under the radar, but this episode we got her explaining how she is strategically competent, and she wants to show that because of the response she got from winning her season. She’s here to prove that she deserves her spot as much as everyone else. I remember someone saying that she might be fearful of not playing a flashy enough game and that could be her downfall, but it seems so far, she’s playing the same way she played her first time that worked. Michele will go deep into this game and either come up just short or make it all the way to the end once more. Will she win? Probably not, but her edit this episode certainly helped her chances.
4th – Sophie – This episode was certainly a cooldown for Sophie. She fell into UTR1 territory. We got a scene of her at the well I believe, and she got a line from that, but I wouldn’t place too much weight on the fact that she wasn’t present in this episode. There was no real reason to show her and it gave her a necessary break. I expect more from her the next time her tribe loses or swaps.
3rd – Yul – We see his strategy of keeping targets in over him which is likely a smart move. Yul hasn’t been targeted by anyone thus far and the others in his alliance except for Sophie have non-existent edits. Should Yul maintain control and not get the short end of the stick in a swap, his chances of winning this entire game are high. It’s amazing to me how he’s adapted to new gameplay all these years later. I appreciate that. Time has served him well as he should be a massive target playing one of the most solid games of all-time, but he’s not so far.
2nd – Sarah – I debated putting her lower than this as a lot of her screen time came from her finding a power. We were shown how she had the same power in the season she won which is why I moved her this high. Right now, there’s no evidence to suggest she betrays Tony, but I believe in order to win this she would have to. It’s amazing to me that Natalie gave her that power. It means she has more connections than we think, due to pregaming that we are not let in on.
1st – Tony – Tony is always going to be a polarizing character. We’ve been shown that people thought he is still erratic. What we haven’t seen is anyone targeting him. In previous seasons, a lot of times the winner comes out of an early alliance that we were shown. Recently, it’s been from a duo. In S39 we were shown Tommy and Lauren. In S37 we were shown Nick and Christian. In S36, Dom and Wendell. The fact that we have so much emphasis on Tony and Sarah early feels like if the editing is consistent, Tony will win this season if Sarah doesn’t backstab him. She could usurp the top spot if she does.
I honestly just think nat gave sarah the power being she had it before and used it well.. I don't know if it was actually a social/strategic reasoning but who knows
